基于组合模型的“十四五”期间中国科技人才需求预测

Forecasting the Demand of Scientific and Technological Talents in the Period of the 14th-Five-Year Plan of China Based on the Combination Model

摘要:

创新驱动发展战略的实施需要大量科技人才做支撑，因此有必要对科技人才需求进行预估。本文选用《中国统计年鉴（1999-2020）》中全国（不含港澳台）R&D人员全时当量数据，以2012-2019年数据构建灰色GM（1，1）预测模型，以1995-2019年数据构建时间序列模型，并将两者组合，对“十四五”期间全国的科技人才需求总量进行预测。预测结果显示，“十四五”期间科技人才需求逐年上升，科技人才的全时当量需求规模达到647.46万人年，科技人才需求端压力较大。基于预测结果，本文认为应关注科技人才的需求与供给，从人才规划、培养、管理、使用等方面保障科技人才数量积累、素质提升和充分利用。

Abstract:

The implementation of innovation driven development strategy needs a large number of scientific and technological talents, so it is necessary to estimate the demand of scientific and technological talents. This paper selects the full-time equivalent data of national R & D personnel (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China Statistical Yearbook (1999-2020), constructs the grey GM (1,1) prediction model based on the data from 2012 to 2019, and constructs the time series model based on the data from 1995 to 2019 to forecast the total demand of scientific and technological talents in China during the "14th five year plan". The forecast results show that the demand for scientific and technological talents is increasing year by year during the "14th five year plan" period, and the full-time equivalent demand scale of scientific and technological talents reaches 6.4746 million person years. Based on the prediction results, this paper thinks that we should pay attention to the demand and supply of scientific and technological talents, and ensure the accumulation of scientific and technological talents, quality improvement and full utilization from the aspects of talent planning, training, management and use.