双循环背景下“一带一路”倡议对中国城市包容性绿色增长的促进效应分析

The Belt and Road Initiative Promote Inclusive Green Growth in China Cities in The Context Dual Circulation

摘要:

中国经济如何实现包容与绿色发展备受学术界广泛关注,而“一带一路”倡议为中国提高包容性绿色增长,畅通国内国际双循环发展提供了新契机。鉴于此,本文以“一带一路”倡议为准自然实验,运用空间双重差分模型(SDID)来考察“一带一路”倡议对中国城市包容性绿色增长的政策效应,并将政策效应进行分解,最后探讨政策效应的作用机制。结果显示：(1)“一带一路”倡议对沿线城市的包容性绿色增长具有直接政策激励作用,且逐年增强；同时,还存在显著的政策红利溢出效应,但溢出效应存在时效性；在溢出效应分解中,政策效应对邻近沿线城市的辐射作用强于非沿线城市。(2)在异质性分析中,“一带一路”倡议的政策效应对内陆节点城市的促进作用要强于海港节点城市。(3)“一带一路”倡议的政策效应主要是通过促进经济增长和社会包容度来提高包容性绿色增长,现阶段对绿色生态的正向促进作用尚未发挥,是未来聚焦的重点。

Abstract:

How to achieve inclusive and green development in the Chinese economy has attracted wide attention from the academic community. The Belt and Road initiative provides a new opportunity for China to enhance inclusive green growth and smooth domestic and international development cycles. Based on this, this paper taking the "Belt and Road" initiative as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper innovatively uses the spatial difference-in-difference model (SDID) to examine the policy effect of the Belt and Road initiative on inclusive green growth in Chinese cities and breaks down the policy effects.finally, the mechanism of policy effect is discussed. The results show that: The One Belt One Road Initiative has a direct policy incentive effect on the inclusive green growth of the node cities along the route, and it is increasing year by year. At the same time, there is also a significant spillover effect of policy dividends, but the spillover effect is Timeliness. In the decomposition of spillover effect, the radiation effect of policy effect on neighboring node cities is stronger than that of non-node cities. The policy effect of the Belt and Road initiative on inclusive green growth in Chinese cities is still valid, but there is heterogeneity, that is, the contribution of inclusive green growth to interior node cities is stronger than that of seaport node cities. Moreover, the policy effect is mainly to improve inclusive green growth by promoting economic growth and social inclusion. At this stage, the positive role of promoting green ecology has not yet been played, which is the focus of the future.