基于ARDL的中国海洋科技创新与海洋产业结构转型升级、海洋经济发展协整分析*

Co-integration Analysis on of China’s Marine Science and Technology Innovation , transformation and upgrading of marine industrial structure and marine economic development based on ARDL

摘要:

科技创新对海洋经济实现高质量发展具有重要的贡献作用,本文基于2004—2018年相关数据,运用ARDL-ECM模型,分析海洋科技创新与海洋经济发展、海洋产业结构转型升级之间的长期均衡与短期动态关系,并结合格兰杰因果关系检验进行探讨。结果表明：海洋科技创新投入和产出的增加能够带来海洋生产总值的增加,海洋产业结构优化对海洋经济发展有正向推动作用,海洋经济发展也是海洋科技创新、海洋产业结构优化的格兰杰原因。而相比海洋科技创新投入,当前海洋科技创新产出对海洋产业结构转型升级以及海洋经济发展的作用相对较小。据此,提出贯彻海洋创新驱动战略、加快科技成果转化的同时兼顾海洋生态文明建设等政策建议。

Abstract:

Marine science and technology plays an important role in realizing high-quality development of Marine economy. Based on sample data from 2004 to 2018, this paper uses ARDL-ECM model to analyze the co-integration relationship between Marine science and technology innovation, Marine industry transformation and upgrading and Marine economic development, combined with Granger causality test to discuss. The results show that the increase of input and output of Marine science and technology innovation can bring about the increase of Marine Gross Product. The optimization of Marine industrial structure has a positive effect on the development of Marine economy. At the same time, Marine economy is the Granger cause of Marine science and technology innovation and the optimization of Marine industrial structure. Compared with the input of Marine science and technology innovation, the current output of Marine science and technology innovation has a relatively small effect on the transformation and upgrading of Marine industrial structure and the development of Marine economy.