技术预见对政府科技治理的影响机制研究

Research on the Influence Mechanism of Technology Foresight on the Government's Science and Technology Governance

摘要:

技术预见是一个系统地整体化探索行为，是将多情景和多要素结合的研究过程，也是政府提高科技治理的重要途径和理论手段，通过技术预见对社会发展愿景和技术需求进行识别与判断，发挥其作为政策工具的战略性作用。本文从技术预见的形成机制入手，深入分析了技术预见的活动主体和理论基础，并从技术预见价值理念转变的视角分析技术预见的形成机制和作用机制，从技术预见的事先预防机制、政策制定工具、技术预见的边际溢出效应等三个方面探讨技术预见对科技治理的影响机制，展现了技术预见作为政策工具的价值性、创新性和指导性作用。最后凝练提升我国技术预见的战略思路，为我国提高技术预见能力、构建现代科技创新治理体系、全面提升科技创新供给能力提供指导和借鉴。

Abstract:

Technology foresight is a systematic and integrated exploration behavior. It is a research process that combines multiple scenarios and multiple elements. It is also an important way and theoretical means for the government to improve scientific and technological governance. Through technology foresight, the social development vision and technical needs are identified and analyzed. Judgment and play its strategic role as a policy tool. This article starts with the formation mechanism of technological foresight, deeply analyzes the active subject and theoretical basis of technological foresight, and analyzes the formation and functioning mechanism of technological foresight from the perspective of the transformation of technological foresight value concept, from the precautionary mechanism and policy formulation of technological foresight Tools and the marginal spillover effects of technological foresight discuss the impact mechanism of technological foresight on technological governance, demonstrating the value, innovation and guiding role of technological foresight as a policy tool. Finally, it condenses the strategic thinking of improving my country's technological foresight, and provides guidance and reference for my country to improve its technological foresight ability, build a modern technological innovation governance system, and comprehensively enhance its technological innovation supply capacity.