中美数字货币博弈：情境推演与对策建议

The game analysis of Sino-U.S. digital currencies: Scenario derivation and countermeasure suggestions

摘要:

当前,数字货币愈发成为全球金融竞争的重要制高点。在非法定数字货币领域,美国的发行和交易政策相对开放；在法定数字货币领域,中国在研发进程、专利申报、货币试点等方面的探索步伐较快。通过中美数字货币博弈的4种情境推演,中美在数字货币领域的对抗已成大概率事件。中国在数字货币国际竞争中应坚持开放合作,更应提前部署极端情境的应对策略。建议发挥支付基础设施完善、应用场景丰富的优势,率先推出央行数字货币并形成“中国样本”；提高数字货币的“科技”含金量,加强底层算法和关键技术的研发；与“一带一路”沿线国家共享知识和经验,加快人民币跨境支付系统建设,构建良好的支付结算生态圈。

Abstract:

At present, digital currency has increasingly become an important item in global financial competition. In the field of non-statutory digital currency, the issuance and transaction policies of the United States are relatively open; in the field of legal digital currency, China has made rapid progress in research and development, patent declaration, and currency trials. Deriving from the four scenarios of Sino-US digital currency competition, the confrontation between China and the United States in the field of digital currency has become a high probability event. China should adhere to an open and cooperative attitude in the international competition of digital currencies, while also deploying strategies to deal with extreme situations in advance. China should take the lead in issuing central bank digital currency and form a "Chinese sample" based on the advantages of complete infrastructure and rich application scenarios; it should improve the technical level of digital currency and strengthen the research and development of underlying algorithms and key technologies; it is recommended that China and the Belt and Road countries Share experience in this field, accelerate the construction of RMB cross-border payment system, and build a good cross-border payment ecology.