面向2035全球科技发展态势研判与中国应对策略研究

Research and Judgment of Global Science and Technology Development Trend towards 2035 and China

摘要:

全球科技发展态势研判是对未来一段时期科学技术、国际竞争、产业形态和社会关系的趋势判断和分析,对做好科技战略制定和规划具有重要意义。本文以2035年为展望,对全球科技发展、创新范式、基础科学、研发组织、社会影响进行态势分析,认为未来科技创新将对人类经济社会发展产生决定性影响,新技术、新组织、新产业、新业态将不断涌现,新型研发组织发生进阶化演变,技术应用将重塑经济社会和产业结构。中国作为科技创新领域进展最快的国家之一,面临着中美科技局部脱钩、国际技术出口管制、新兴技术应用受限、科研伦理不确定性增多等潜在风险。对此,提出应加强对战略前沿技术的前瞻性预测,加强国家科技合作,构建国家战略科技力量,构建核心技术攻关新型举国体制,加快政府管理职能转变等五方面措施。

Abstract:

The research and judgment of global science and technology development trend is to judge and analyze the trend of science and technology, international competition, industrial form and social relations for a period of time in the future. It is of great significance for the formulation and planning of science and technology strategy. Taking 2035 as the outlook, this article analyzes the global technological development, innovation paradigm, basic science, R D organization, and social impact, it believes that future technological innovation will have a decisive impact on human economic and social development. New technologies, new organizations, new industries, new business formats will continue to emerge, new R D organizations will undergo advanced evolution, and technology applications will reshape the economic society and industrial structure. As one of the countries with the fastest progress in the field of scientific and technological innovation, China faces potential risks such as partial decoupling of Chinese and American science and technology, international technology export control, restricted application of emerging technologies, and increased uncertainty in scientific research ethics. In this regard, it is proposed to strengthen forward-looking forecasts of strategic frontier technologies, strengthen national scientific and technological cooperation, build national strategic scientific and technological strength, build a new national system for core technology research, and accelerate the transformation of government management functions.