中国水资源-能源-粮食绿色发展耦合协调效应及其空间效应

The coupling coordination effect and space transmission of water - energy - food green development in China

摘要:

本文将经济、环境系统与水资源-能源-粮食系统相结合,以从三元到五元系统的绿色发展视角研究中国不同区域2005-2019年之间关于水资源-能源-粮食绿色发展综合指数的时空差异、耦合协调效应和空间效应。结果显示：(1)研究期内中国各省份五元系统绿色发展指数总体不高,发展趋势较为平稳,显示出明显的区域差异；(2)大部分省份的五元系统耦合协调度都在濒临失调与勉强协调区间,耦合协调度水平还比较低；(3)五元系统的耦合协调度在大多数年份内都呈现出显著正向的空间自相关,表现为正向的空间集聚现象；(4)耦合协调度的主要影响因素表现出明显的空间溢出。政府在政策制定过程中需要综合考虑各类资源与环境、经济系统的特性及其综合发展水平、各类系统间的耦合协调度,并考虑到每一个重要影响因素对耦合协调度空间上的直接效应和间接效应,以提升本区域和邻近区域整体绿色发展水平。

Abstract:

This paper innovatively combines economic and environmental systems with water-energy-food systems. From the perspective of three-element to five-element system of green development, this paper studies the spatio-temporal differences, coupling coordination effects and spatial transmission results of the comprehensive index of water-energy-food green development in different regions of China from 2005 to 2019. The results show that the green development index of five systems in all provinces of China is not high on the whole during the study period, and the development trend is relatively stable, showing obvious regional differences. The coupling coordination degree of five-element system in most provinces is in the range of near disorder and barely coordination, and the level of coupling coordination degree is relatively low. In most years, the coupling coordination degree of five-element system presents a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, which is manifested as a positive spatial clustering phenomenon. The main influencing factors of coupling coordination degree show obvious space overflow. In the process of policy formulation, the government needs to comprehensively consider the characteristics of the system of resources, environment and economy, its comprehensive development level and the degree of coupling and coordination among various systems. In addition, the direct and indirect effects of each important influencing factor on the spatial conduction of coupling coordination degree are considered to improve the overall coupling coordination degree level of green development in this region and neighboring regions.