颠覆性技术遴选的指标体系与流程设计——基于扎根理论的多案例研究

The Index System and Process Design of the Disruptive Technology Selection——A Multi-Case Research Based on Grounded Theory

摘要:

基于对国内外颠覆性技术遴选的多案例研究,运用程序化扎根理论展开文本数据分析,对颠覆性技术遴选的指标体系与流程进行设计,以弥补现有专家评审制度存在的缺陷。本文设计了先“质”后“量”的评审原则,设置了前期准备、初评、再评和现场评议的评审流程。在“质的判断”方面,运用德尔菲调查法,依靠专家直觉对项目是否具有颠覆性进行初步判断；在“量的判断”方面,邀请专家从技术颠覆、产业变革、经济价值、社会影响这四个维度进行打分,通过加权评分最终计算出各项目综合评分,层层递进以完成颠覆性技术的遴选。

Abstract:

Based on a multi-case research on the selection of disruptive technology ranging from the domestic and international, the paper analyzes the text data by using the procedural grounded theory, which designs the index system and process for the selection of disruptive technology, so as to make up for the shortcomings of the existing expert evaluation system. The evaluation principle of before and the evaluation process of preliminary preparation, initial evaluation, re-evaluation and on-site evaluation is set up. In the aspect of "essential judgment", Delphi method is used to make a preliminary judgment on whether a project is disruptive or not, relying on the expert intuition. In the aspect of "quantity judgment", experts are invited to score from four dimensions: technical disruptive, industrial change, economic value and social influence, and the comprehensive scores of each project are finally calculated through weighted scores, so as to complete the selection of disruptive technology step by step.