基于改进N-K模型的铁路工程质量风险因素耦合效应分析

Analysis of Coupling Effect of Railroad Engineering Quality Risk Factors Based on Improved N-K Model

摘要:

为填补现有关于铁路工程质量风险因素耦合研究较少且缺乏考虑二级子因素之间耦合效应的不足，通过对我国132起铁路质量事故报告的统计分析，构建N-K模型与系统动力学仿真模型相结合的风险因素耦合效应分析模型，量化风险要素耦合效应的危险程度。结果表明：质量风险事故发生概率与耦合值正相关，而风险因素耦合值的大小基本与参与耦合的风险因素数量呈正比，降低耦合值会导致系统风险水平增长速度与总水平值的下降。因此，在进行质量风险管理时，应提前建立有针对性的风险防御机制来降低风险因素之间的耦合效应，并对人为风险因素进行重点管控。

Abstract:

In order to fill the shortage of existing studies on the coupling of railroad engineering quality risk factors and inadequate consideration of the coupling effect between secondary sub risk factors, the N-K model combined with the system dynamics simulation model was constructed to analyze the coupling effect of risk factors to quantify the dangerous degree of the coupling effect of risk elements through the statistical analysis of 132 railroad quality accident reports in China. The results show that the probability of quality risk accidents is positively correlated with the coupling value, while the worth of the coupling value of risk factors is basically proportional to the number of risk factors involved in the coupling, and reducing the coupling value will lead to a decrease in the growth rate of the system risk level and the total level value. Therefore, when managers carry out quality risk management, they should establish targeted risk defense mechanisms in advance to reduce the coupling effect between risk factors, and take focused control measures on human risk factors.