Abstract:Global warming is becoming more and more serious, controlling CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions is an important way for the Chinese government to implement carbon reduction policies. Based on the system dynamics method and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission factor method, the CO2 emissions of fossil energy in Shanghai from 2000 to 2019 is quantitatively accounted, the system dynamic model of the CO2 emission of fossil energy in Shanghai is constructed, and the future CO2 emission changes under the three scenarios of basic emission, low emission and high emission are simulated. The study shows that: (1) According to the statistical data from 2000 to 2019, the CO2 emission of fossil energy in Shanghai began to climb from 2003 to 2010.SSThe fastest growth period was from 2004 to 2007, with an increase of 32.7%.SS(2) The GDP of Shanghai will increase year by year. In 2050, the low emission scenario will decrease by 25% and the high emission scenario will increase by 33% compared with the basic scenario.SS(3) From 2020 to 2050, the energy consumption of low emission scenario will decrease, while the energy consumption of basic scenario and high emission scenario will increase first and then decrease, peaking in 2029 and 2037, respectively.SSHowever, energy intensity from high to low is low emission scenario, base scenario and high emission scenario, which is mainly caused by GDP growth.SS(4) CO2 emissions of the base and low emission scenarios will peak in 2030.SThe CO2 emission of the low emission scenario is 4.4% lower than that of the basic scenario.SSCO2 in the high emission scenario will peak in 2033, rising by 5.6% compared with the base scenario.SSThe research results show the development of different scenarios in Shanghai, which can provide theoretical support and data reference for relevant government departments in Shanghai to formulate low-carbon policies. S