全球变暖形势日趋严峻,控制CO2等温室气体排放是中国政府实施碳减排政策的重要方向。本文基于系统动力学方法和IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)排放因子法,对上海市2000-2019年的化石能源CO2排放进行定量核算,构建上海市化石能源CO2排放系统动力学模型,并模拟基础排放、低排放、高排放3种情景下的未来CO2排放变化。发现:(1)根据2000-2019年统计数据,上海市化石能源的CO2排放从2003年开始攀升,到2010年开始趋于平稳增长。其中增长最快的阶段为2004-2007年,增长了32.7%；(2)上海市GDP逐年增长,2050年低排放情景较基础情景下降25%,高排放情景较基础情景上升33%；(3)2020-2050年低排放情景的能源消费量呈下降趋势,基础情景与高排放情景的能源消费量呈先增后降趋势,分别在2029年、2037年达到峰值。但能源强度从高到低为低排放情景、基础情景、高排放情景,主要是由于GDP增长问题导致；(4)基础情景与低排放情景的CO2排放在2030年达到峰值；低排放情景CO2排放较基础情景降低4.4%；高排放情景的CO2在2033年达到峰值,较基础情景上涨5.6%。研究结果展示了上海市不同情景的发展情况,能够为上海市相关政府部门的碳减排政策制定提供理论支持和数据参考。

Global warming is becoming more and more serious, controlling CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions is an important way for the Chinese government to implement carbon reduction policies. Based on the system dynamics method and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission factor method, the CO2 emissions of fossil energy in Shanghai from 2000 to 2019 is quantitatively accounted, the system dynamic model of the CO2 emission of fossil energy in Shanghai is constructed, and the future CO2 emission changes under the three scenarios of basic emission, low emission and high emission are simulated. The study shows that: (1) According to the statistical data from 2000 to 2019, the CO₂ emission of fossil energy in Shanghai began to climb from 2003 to 2010.SSThe fastest growth period was from 2004 to 2007, with an increase of 32.7%.SS(2) The GDP of Shanghai will increase year by year. In 2050, the low emission scenario will decrease by 25% and the high emission scenario will increase by 33% compared with the basic scenario.SS(3) From 2020 to 2050, the energy consumption of low emission scenario will decrease, while the energy consumption of basic scenario and high emission scenario will increase first and then decrease, peaking in 2029 and 2037, respectively.SSHowever, energy intensity from high to low is low emission scenario, base scenario and high emission scenario, which is mainly caused by GDP growth.SS(4) CO₂ emissions of the base and low emission scenarios will peak in 2030.SThe CO₂ emission of the low emission scenario is 4.4% lower than that of the basic scenario.SSCO₂ in the high emission scenario will peak in 2033, rising by 5.6% compared with the base scenario.SSThe research results show the development of different scenarios in Shanghai, which can provide theoretical support and data reference for relevant government departments in Shanghai to formulate low-carbon policies. S