中国交通碳排放驱动因素分析 ——基于脱钩理论与GFI分解法

An analysis of driving factors of China's transportation carbon emissions ——based on decoupling theory and Generalized Fisher Index decomposition

摘要:

识别交通碳排放驱动因素是实现“双碳”目标的关键。本文将中国交通碳排放分解为能源结构、（交通）能源强度、交通强度、经济城市化、人口城市化、土地城市化6个驱动因素，分析不同脱钩状态下各因素驱动效果。采用的GFI因素分解法具有消除残值、分解更完全的优势。研究发现：中国交通碳排放持续增长，但理想脱钩状态省份从0上升到8个；经济和土地城市化是阻碍碳减排最关键因素，人口城市化、交通强度、能源结构促进碳减排；能源强度、交通强度是形成不同脱钩状态主因。构建“高效、紧凑、智能”城市交运体系有助于交通部门更早实现“碳达峰”。

Abstract:

Identifying the driving factors of transportation carbon emissions is particularly critical to achieve the goals of carbon emission peaking and carbon neutrality. This paper used the transportation sector carbon emissions data from 2002 to 2017 and decomposed the changes of transportation carbon emissions in time trend into six driving factors: energy structure, (transportation) energy intensity, traffic intensity, economic urbanization, population urbanization, and land urbanization. At the same time, utilizing decoupling theory and Generalized Index(GFI) are to analyze trends of China's transportation carbon emissions in temporal and spatial perspective, decoupling status and the driving factors behind them. The Generalized Fisher Index (GFI) factor decomposition method used has the advantage of eliminating the calculated residual value and making the decomposition more complete. The study found that: (1) China's transportation carbon emissions continue to grow, but the number of provinces with ideal decoupling relationships have increased from the initial 0 to 8; (2) Economy and land urbanization are the most critical factors hindering carbon emission reduction, while population urbanization, traffic intensity, and transportation energy structure promote carbon emission reduction. (3) Energy intensity and traffic intensity are the main reasons for formatting four different types of decoupling in various provinces. Transportation energy intensity and traffic intensity firstly promote the growth and then reduction of transportation carbon emissions in the strong decoupling and weak decoupling provinces. Building an "efficient, compact, and smart" urban transportation system will help the transportation sector achieve the "carbon emission peaking" earlier.