融资租赁对广州市实体经济的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Financial Leasing on the Real Economy of Guangzhou

摘要:

从产业结构角度实证研究广州市的融资租赁发展对实体经济的影响，运用协整检验和误差修正模型，实证2011-2019年广州的融资租赁发展对基础设施投资与第三产业经济增长的影响，以及融资租赁发展与先进制造业投资和工业经济增长关系。结果表明:融资租赁发展促进基础设施投资进而促进第三产业经济增长；融资租赁促进了先进制造业投资，但先进制造业的固定资产投资没有转化为工业经济增长；融资租赁对工业经济增长的促进作用可能源于其促销功能，在当前行业产能过剩的情况下，增加固定资产投资对促进工业经济增长不显著。结合广州实际，为广州融资租赁更高质量服务产业发展提出相应对策建议。

关键词:基础设施投资; 先进制造业; 经济增长; 误差修正模型

Abstract:

From the perspective of industrial structure study the impact of Guangzhou’s development of financial leasing on the real economy. Using he data span form the year 2011 to 2019, cointegration test and error correction model(ECM) are established to empirically study not only the influence of Guangzhou’s development of financial leasing on its infrastructure investment and the third industry economic growth, but also, the relationship among financial leasing , advanced manufacturing investment and industrial economic growth. The results show that the development of finance lease accelerates infrastructure investment and further promotes the economic growth of tertiary industry. Financial leasing promotes the investment in advanced manufacturing industry, however but the fixed asset investment in advanced manufacture is not transformed into industrial value added. The promotion effect of financial leasing on industrial economic growth may be derived from its promotion function. Under the current situation of overcapacity in the industry, increasing fixed asset investment does not significantly promote industrial economic growth. This paper offers some proposals for Guangzhou’s development of financial leasing to better serve the industry.

Key words:Infrastructure investment;advanced manufacturing; economic growth; ECM