创新驱动经济增长的“U型”规律与金融激励机制的影响——来自世界的经验

The "U-shaped" law of innovation-driven economic growth and the impact of financial incentive mechanisms—experience from the world

摘要:

创新对经济增长的影响现有研究多有讨论，但较少涉及创新驱动经济增长的非线性U型规律的探讨，并对金融激励机制在这一规律中的作用予以研究，得出相应的假设。论文选择世界100个国家或地区1995-2017年23年间的平衡面板数据资料对这一规律的机理予以说明并开展检验，通过最小二乘法（OLS）、工具变量的两阶段最小二乘法（2SLS）、对弱工具变量问题不敏感的有限信息最大似然法（LIML）、对异方差更有效率的广义矩估计法（GMM）,以及迭代广义矩估计法（迭代GMM）分别对模型进行估计,对其可能存在的金融激励影响机制以及异质性开展了检验。通过多个内生性与稳健性的方法检验后发现，创新驱动经济增长满足U型规律且金融激励机制发挥了杠杆作用，放大了这一规律的作用效果，使其更为明显。得出了恰当地选择创新项目的对象并开展合理投资，以及持续支持创新的政策启示，对打破“收入陷阱”问题有一定的启示。

Abstract:

The influence of innovation on economic growth is mostly discussed in existing research, but rarely involves the discussion of the nonlinear U-shaped law of innovation-driven economic growth, and the role of financial incentives in this law is studied, and corresponding hypotheses are drawn. . The paper selects the balance panel data of 100 countries or regions in the world from 1995 to 2017 to explain the mechanism of this law and carry out tests, through the least squares method (OLS), the two-stage least squares method of instrumental variables (2SLS) , Limited information maximum likelihood method (LIML) that is not sensitive to weak instrumental variables, generalized moment estimation method (GMM) that is more efficient for heteroscedasticity, and iterative generalized moment estimation method (iterative GMM) respectively estimate the model, It tested its possible financial incentive mechanism and its heterogeneity. Through multiple endogenous and robust method tests, it is found that innovation-driven economic growth satisfies the U-shaped law and the financial incentive mechanism has played a leverage role, magnifying the effect of this law and making it more obvious. The policy enlightenment of choosing the target of innovation project appropriately, carrying out reasonable investment, and continuing to support innovation, has some enlightenment for breaking the "income trap" problem.