智慧物流发展水平的动态测评——基于全国31省（自治区、直辖市）面板数据的实证研究

Dynamic Evaluation of Intelligent Logistics Development Level: A Study Based on the Test of a Provincial-level Panel Data in China

摘要:

为在新发展格局下推进智慧物流释放发展动能，需要在数字平台主导的价值链生态系统中，关注智慧物流发展水平。本文提出一个基于智慧物流经济环境、智慧物流经济活动、省域物流业发展规模和智慧物流技术的综合测评体系，运用动态因子分析法探究2014—2019年我国大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市的智慧物流经济发展水平，实现了横向空间差异和纵向动态趋势的全面测评。研究显示：（1）根据横向空间差异比较结果，我国各地区的智慧物流发展水平根据动态因子分析测算出的平均综合得分可划分为较好、一般和较差3个主要类别，总体呈现显著的东、中、西部梯度下降的空间分布特征。（2）根据纵向动态趋势分析结果，我国智慧物流发展水平变化可划分为上升型、下降型、波动型和稳定型4种变化形态，在时间和空间趋势上兼具规律性可循。

Abstract:

Under the new development paradigm of China, intelligent logistics is an important kinetic energy in the value chain ecosystem dominated by digital platform. At present, there is still a lack of scientific estimation of the development level of provincial intelligent logistics. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of Chinese intelligent logistics development level. This paper selects 16 evaluation indicators from four dimensions: the economic environment of intelligent logistics, the economic activities of intelligent logistics, the provincial logistics industry development scale and the intelligent logistics technology. Based on the data of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in mainland China from 2014 to 2019, this paper adopts dynamic factor analysis method to explore the development level and changing trend of the intelligent logistics, so as to realize the combination of horizontal spatial comparison and vertical tracking under the dynamic analysis system. The results show that: (1) According to the results of the lateral spatial comparison, this study divides the level of intelligent logistics development in various regions of China into three categories: good, general and poor, and the development level of China’s intelligent logistics generally presents a significant spatial distribution characteristic of decreasing gradients in east, middle and west. (2) From the perspective of dynamic analysis of vertical trend, the level of intelligent logistics in China shows four changing patterns: upward, downward , fluctuation and stable, which are both regular in time and space trends.