“一带一路”沿线国家研发效率对经济增长的影响 ——技术赶超还是技术创新？

The impact of R&D efficiency on economic growth in countries along the “Belt and Road”：Technical catch-up or technological innovation?

摘要:

本文运用“一带一路”沿线57个国家的面板数据构建三阶段五系统的Network DEA-Malmquist指数模型,在测度研发效率并进行全要素生产率指数分解基础上，结合空间计量模型分析研发效率对经济增长的贡献程度，并判断在各阶段是技术赶超还是技术创新支撑了国家的经济增长，从而有利于沿线各国找到提升研发效率与加快经济增长的途径。主要发现:(1) 从专利生产阶段到新产品生产阶段全要素研发效率指数明显提高。各国研发效率提升主要依靠的是技术效率水平的提高，而非技术进步;(2)研发资本投入均对研发效率有显著正向影响，研发人员对研发效率表现为负向不显著的影响；(3)专利生产阶段的中间产出对经济增长的贡献大于新产品生产阶段的最终产出对经济增长的贡献；（4）相比技术效率的提升，技术进步对经济增长的贡献更大。技术效率中，纯技术效率的贡献更大。第二阶段，相比科技论文数，申请专利有效数对经济增长的贡献更大。第三阶段，相比工业增加值，新产品销售收入对经济增长的贡献更大。

Abstract:

This paper uses panel data from 57 countries along the “Belt and Road” to construct a three-stage and five-system Network DEA-Malmquist index model. On the basis of measuring R&D efficiency and decomposing the total factor productivity index, it analyzes the effect of R&D efficiency on economic growth combined with spatial econometric models. It also judges whether technological catch-up or technological innovation supports the country’s economic growth at various stages, which will help countries along the route to find ways to improve R&D efficiency and accelerate economic growth. The main findings are: (1) The R&D efficiency index of all factors has increased significantly from the patent production stage to the new product production stage. The improvement of R&D efficiency in various countries mainly depends on the improvement of technical efficiency rather than technological progress; (2) R&D capital investment has a significant positive impact on R&D efficiency, and R&D personnel have a negative and insignificant impact on R&D efficiency; ( 3) The contribution of the intermediate output of the patent production stage to economic growth is greater than the contribution of the final output of the new product production stage to economic growth; (4) Compared with the improvement of technical efficiency, technological progress has a greater contribution to economic growth. Among technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency contributes more. In the second stage, compared with the number of scientific papers, the number of valid patent applications has a greater contribution to economic growth. In the third stage, compared with the industrial added value, the sales revenue of new products makes a greater contribution to economic growth.