基于多参数动态时序的技术预测方法与实证研究

Technology Forecasting Method and Empirical Research Based on Multi-parameter Dynamic Time Series

摘要:

技术预测是国家制定科技政策和选择优先发展领域的重要依据，对实施创新驱动战略，发挥科技创新支撑具有十分重要的作用。本文在分析文献与技术发展变化关系的基础上，提出了利用技术主题词频差值来反映一定时间区间内技术发展变化特征的多参数动态时序技术预测方法。以VOCs处理技术领域为例进行实证研究，结果表明，多参数动态时序技术预测方法能够有效识别技术主题的发展变化趋势。

Abstract:

Technology forecasting is an important basis for the national formulation of science and technology policies and selection of priority development areas, and plays an important role in science and technology innovation. In this paper, through analyzing the relationship between literature and technological development changes, we propose a multi-parameter dynamic time-series technology forecasting method that reflects the characteristics of technological development changes by the frequency difference of subject words. Empirical research is carried by taking VOCs treatment field as an example. The empirical research results show that thermal decomposition technology is the key development technology in the field of VOCs treatment field at present and in the future.