碳达峰目标下中国绿色建造技术驱动因素的作用机制：基于系统动力学仿真分析

Mechanism on Driving Factors of Green Construction Technology Under Carbon Peak Target in China: Based on System Dynamics Simulation Analysis

摘要:

绿色建造技术的推广与应用是促进建筑业持续健康发展的根本路径之一，为有效解决目前我国绿色建造技术推广与应用遇到的障碍，在研究国内外相关主要研究成果的基础上，总结归纳影响绿色建造技术发展的因素，并从市场、经济、生态以及社会参与度等角度得到关键驱动因素，据此构建系统动力学仿真模型，对有关驱动因素进行灵敏度的动态分析并观察各主要因素的影响效果，得到碳达峰目标下我国绿色建造技术驱动因素的作用机制。结果表明：各驱动因素对我国绿色建造技术的推广与应用具有正向的促进作用，但影响程度不同，技术研发程度、政策法律完善程度、绿色建造管理模式、节水节地技术效率对成本影响明显，而对生态价值和生产力效率影响不同。根据研究结论，从绿色建造政策法规、技术研发、管理模式和技术效率等方面提出相关对策建议。

Abstract:

Popularization and application of green construction technology is one of the fundamental ways to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the construction industry. In order to effectively solve the obstacles encountered in the popularization and application of green construction technology, based on the existing research results at home and abroad, the factors that affect the development of green construction technology are identified, and the key driving factors are obtained from the perspectives of market, economy, ecology and social participation. Then, the system dynamics simulation model is constructed, the sensitivity of related driving factors is dynamically analyzed, and the effect of main factors are observed, so as to obtain the mechanism of driving factors of green construction technology in China under carbon peak target. The results show that the driving factors have a positive effect on the popularization and application of green construction technology in China, but the influence degree is different. The degree of technology research and development, the perfection of policies and regulations, the green construction management mode and the technical efficiency of water and land saving have obvious impacts on the cost, but the impacts on the ecological value and production efficiency are different. According to the research conclusion, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from green construction policies and regulations, technology research and development, management mode and technical efficiency.