碳市场建设对资源型城市资源依赖度的影响研究——基于异期DID模型

The influence of carbon market construction on resource dependence of resource-based cities——Based on the Multistage DID model

摘要:

本文以降低资源依赖度作为切入点，以中国资源型城市为样本，鉴于不同碳交易试点地区开展试点工作的时间不一致，采用异期双重差分法（DID）考察碳交易市场试点对资源型城市资源依赖度的影响。实证结果发现：碳交易能够较为显著地降低资源型城市对传统资源的依赖程度，但此种影响具有一定滞后性，且平行趋势检验和安慰剂检验结果均能够支持这一实证结果。本研究结论对于增强中国碳交易市场发展信心、促进区域经济绿色低碳转型有一定的积极作用。

关键词:碳交易;资源型城市;资源依赖;异期DID模型

Abstract:

This paper takes reducing resource dependence as a starting point，takes resource-based cities in China as samples, and adopts different-phase differential method (DID) to investigate the impact of carbon trading market pilot on resource dependence of resource-based cities in view of the different pilot periods of carbon trading in different pilot regions. The empirical results show that carbon trading can significantly reduce the dependence of resource-based cities on traditional resource land, but this kind of influence has hysteresis, the results of parallel trend test and placebo test can support the empirical results. The conclusion of this study will play a positive role in enhancing the confidence of China's carbon trading market and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of regional economy.

Key words:carbon trading; resource-based city; resource dependence; multistage DID model