基于结构分解的碳排放驱动因素及行业影响分析 ——以广东为例

Analysis of Carbon Emission Evolution Factors and Industry Impact Based on Structural Decomposition: Taking Guangdong as an Example

摘要:

为弥补缺乏从行业附加值视角研究碳排放强度和部门生产环节碳排放结构的不足，以更好地分析碳排放变动情况，基于消费者视角，同时考虑附加值对碳排放的影响，将引起碳排放的因素分解为能源结构效应、能源强度效应、附加值效应、投入结构效应和最终需求效应并构建研究模型，以广东为例，利用其2007年、2012年和2017年投入产出表数据，采用结构分解分析（SDA）法和结构路径分析（SPA）法对广东及其部分行业碳排放情况进行分析。结果表明：对于广东而言，能源强度效应是碳排放减少的主要因素，最终需求效应是碳排放增加的主要因素；直接碳强度和完全碳强度增加的部门主要是能源部门，其碳排放呈现增加状态，其中直接消耗引起的碳排放比例增加，间接消耗引起的碳排放集中在第1和第2层生产环节上；能源强度效应是非能源部门直接碳排放和完全碳强度降低的关键因素。最后，从应对最终需求高碳化对碳排放的影响、能源消费结构和产业结构优化调整以及政府调控手段等方面对促进广东碳减排提出有关对策建议。

Abstract:

In order to make up for the lack of research on carbon emission intensity and carbon emission structure of sectoral production from the perspective of industry value added, we can better analyze the changes of carbon emission.Based on the consumer perspective and considering the impact of value added on carbon emissions, we decompose the factors causing carbon emissions into energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, value added effect, input structure effect and final demand effect and construct a research model, taking Guangdong as an example, and using its input-output table data in 2007, 2012 and 2017, we adopt the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method and structural path analysis (SPA) method to analyze the carbon emissions of Guangdong and some of its industries. The results show that: for Guangdong, the energy intensity effect is the main factor of carbon emission reduction, and the final demand effect is the main factor of carbon emission increase; the sectors with increased direct carbon intensity and complete carbon intensity are mainly the energy sector, whose carbon emission shows an increase, among which the proportion of carbon emission caused by direct consumption increases, and the carbon emission caused by indirect consumption is concentrated on the 1st and 2nd layer of production; the energy intensity effect is a key factor in the reduction of direct carbon emissions and complete carbon intensity in the non-energy sector.Finally, relevant measures are proposed to promote carbon emission reduction in Guangdong in terms of coping with the impact of high carbonization of final demand on carbon emission, optimization and adjustment of energy consumption structure and industrial structure, as well as government regulation and control means.