基于佩特里网的技术系统演化模型研究

Research on Technology System Evolution Model Based on Petri Net

摘要:

深入探讨技术系统演化的微观动力机制以及技术系统结构对技术创新的作用，促进企业把握技术系统演化规律、识别技术系统演化主要要素，从而获取和保持竞争优势。从技术系统功能结构出发，运用功能结构建模与佩特里网（Petri Net,PN）结合的动态功能分析方法，以共享单车为例，利用从智慧芽专利数据库检索出的相关专利文本，构建以功能树形式呈现的技术系统功能结构；并引入时间维度构建随机佩特里网（Stochastic Petri Net,SPN）模型，从稳定概率、库所繁忙率和变迁利用率三方面反映技术系统演化的主要功能要素，通过仿真计算不同条件下各功能模块变化对技术系统的影响，得出需要优化反馈车辆状况和更新或升级软件两个关键功能。实证结果表明，技术系统的核心功能导致技术系统演化，识别关键核心功能有助于把握技术系统演化的重点和方向；SPN模型可以用来识别驱动技术系统演化的关键功能动态元素。

Abstract:

In order to grasp laws and identify main elements of the technology system evolution, the microscopic dynamic mechanism of technology system evolution and the effect of technology system structure on technology innovation were deeply discussed. In this way, enterprises could gain and maintain competitive advantages. Based on the functional structure of technology system, the dynamic functional analysis method combining functional structure modeling and Petri Net (PN) was used. Specifically, taking bicycle-sharing as an example, the technology system functional structure in the form of functional-tree was constructed by using the patent database of PatSnap. Then, the time dimension was introduced into Stochastic Petri net (SPN), and the main functional elements of technology system evolution was reflected by the stability probability, the place busy rate and the transition utilization rate. Through simulation calculation the impact of the various functional modules changes on the technology system under different conditions, it was concluded that two key functions , namely, the need to optimize the vehicle conditions and update software. The empirical results showed that the core functions of technology systems lead to technology system evolution, so identifying the key core functions was helpful to grasp the keynote and direction of technology system evolution. And the SPN model could be used to identify the key functional dynamic elements that drive technology system evolution.