多情境视角下中国中部六省碳达峰预测

Research on carbon peak prediction in six provinces in central China from a multi-situation perspective

摘要:

在“双碳”目标宏观背景下，本文以中部六省为研究对象，在甄别碳排放主要影响因素基础上，搭建STIRPAT模型对中部六省的碳排放量进行拟合，并设定不同情景参数对碳排放的达峰时间和峰值进行预测。研究结果表明：低碳模式是所有情景模式中最早达峰（2025年）且峰值最低（115844.32万吨）的最佳发展模式;若保持经济稳定增长且实现2030年碳达峰的目标，可采用高质量发展模式;绿色模式、节能模式、基准模式的达峰时间分别为2025年、2030年和2035年，碳排放峰值分别为117058.17万吨、117058.17万吨和129675.23万吨;粗放模式下，在2040年不能实现碳达峰。基于此，提出各省应结合实际情况，明确今后政策落实的侧重方向，早日完成中国整体实现碳达峰的目标。

Abstract:

Under the macro background of "dual carbon" target, this paper takes the six central provinces as the research object, and on the basis of screening the main influencing factors of carbon emissions, builds STIRPAT model to fit the carbon emissions of the six central provinces, and sets different scenario parameters to predict the peak time and peak value of carbon emissions.The results show that the low-carbon mode is the best development model with the earliest peak (2025) and the lowest peak (1,158,443,200 tons of all scenario modes); Maintain steady economic growth and achieve the carbon peak target for 2030, High-quality development model can be adopted; The peak time of green mode , energy saving mode and benchmark mode is 2025,2030 and 2035, respectively, The peak carbon emissions were 11705817 million tons, 1170581700 tons and 1296.6752300 tons, respectively; Extensive model is to maintain the existing model of development stage, Not only is it the latest peak time, And no carbon peak in 2040.Based on this, it is proposed that all provinces should combine the actual situation of the province, clarify the focus direction of policy implementation in the future, and achieve the overall goal of achieving carbon peak in China as soon as possible.