我国光伏产业政策变迁的间断均衡分析：弱制度摩擦场景下决策层理念革新的作用

Punctuated Equilibrium Analysis of China's PV Industry Policy Changes: the Updates of Policy Makers’ Philosophy under Weak Institutional Friction

摘要:

经过十六年的发展,我国光伏产业政策已形成了一套完整的政策体系。本文基于间断均衡理论模型,在将我国光伏政策变迁历程划分为三个均衡期和两个间断期的基础上,从政策系统内部和外部两个方面剖析推动政策变迁的影响因素和作用机制。研究发现,决策层理念革新和焦点事件共同推动了政策图景和政策场域的交互作用,形成了我国光伏政策变迁的动力机制。其中,决策层理念革新是关键的主动性变量,其作用的有效发挥既得益于我国弱制度摩擦场景特征,也受到市场主体不断壮大反作用于政府认知的影响。在日益开放的政策场域下,多元主体协同模式有效地降低了决策风险,增强了决策的科学性。文章提出,未来应当加强政府的信息收集和处理能力,同时扩大多方协同的政策场域,充分了解和回应不同主体的诉求。

Abstract:

After sixteen years of development, China"s PV industry policy has formed a complete policy system. Based on the punctuated equilibrium theory model, the paper analyzes the influencing factors and mechanisms driving the policy change from both internal and external aspects of the policy system on the basis of dividing China"s PV policy change history into three equilibrium periods and two intermittent periods. It is found that policymakers" philosophy and focal events have combined to drive the interaction of the policy image and the policy field, forming the dynamic mechanism of PV policy change in China. Among them, the updates of policymakers" philosophy is the key proactive variable, and its effective role is both attributed to the characteristics of China"s weak institutional friction scenario and influenced by the growing market players" reaction to the government"s perception. In an increasingly open policy field, the collaborative model of multiple subjects effectively reduces the risk of decision making and enhances the scientificity. The article suggests that the government"s information collection and processing capabilities should be strengthened in the future, while expanding the policy field of multi-party collaboration to fully understand and respond to the demands of different subjects.