流通数字化与制造业韧性的交互影响及空间溢出效应

Interaction Influence and Spatial Spillover Effect Between Circulation Digitalization and Manufacturing Resilience

摘要:

为弥补目前对流通数字化与制造业韧性协同发展水平测度与异质性分析以及二者交互影响与空间溢出效应机制检验的不足，基于系统关联与空间互动的视角构建流通数字化和制造业韧性的评价指标体系，利用我国31个省份2014－2019年的相关数据，运用耦合协调模型、空间联立方程模型与广义三阶段空间最小二乘估计法进行分析和检验。结果发现：我国流通数字化与制造业韧性的协同发展具有由低度耦合协调向中度耦合协调转变，且呈现出东部高于西部、沿海优于内陆的区域异质性特征；从空间互动来看，二者均存在显著的空间溢出效应和地区交互影响，即邻近地区流通数字化改造能够促进本地流通数字化发展，但对本地制造业韧性提升产生抑制作用；邻近地区制造业韧性增强由于回波效应阻碍本地流通数字化转型，同时由于示范效应增强本地制造业韧性。今后，我国应加强统筹流通数字化与制造业韧性耦合发展的协同建设，充分发挥各地区比较优势，树立区域间产业链上下游深度融合的全局思维，形成产业间互利共生的协调联动机制。

Abstract:

To make up for the coordination development level circulation and manufacturing digital toughness measure and heterogeneity analysis as well as the two interaction and spatial spillover effect mechanism test, based on the perspective of the relationship and space interaction system build circulation and manufacturing digital toughness evaluation index system, using the related data of 31 provinces from 2014 to 2019. The coupling coordination model, spatial simultaneous equation model, and generalized three-stage spatial least squares estimation method are used for analysis and testing. The results show that the coordinated development of circulation digitalization and manufacturing resilience in China has changed from low-degree coupling coordination to moderate coupling coordination, and presents regional heterogeneity characteristics, such as the east being higher than the west, and the coastal area being better than the inland area. From the perspective of spatial interaction, both of them have significant spatial spillover effects and regional interaction effects, that is, the digital transformation of circulation in neighboring areas can promote the development of local circulation digitalization, but has a restraining effect on the improvement of local manufacturing resilience. The resilience of the manufacturing industry in neighboring regions is enhanced due to the echo effect, which hinders the digital transformation of local circulation, while the resilience of the local manufacturing industry is enhanced due to the demonstration effect. In the future, China should strengthen the coordinated construction of the coupled development of circulation digitalization and manufacturing resilience, give full play to the comparative advantages of various regions, establish global thinking of the deep integration of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain between regions, and form a coordinated linkage mechanism of mutual benefit and symbiosis between industries.