基于CBR的重大工程项目复杂性治理策略研究

Complexity Governance Strategy of Megaprojects Based on Case-based Reasoning

摘要:

重大工程是极度复杂的社会经济系统，存在多维复杂性，包括组织复杂性、任务复杂性、技术复杂性、环境复杂性、制度复杂性和社会复杂性。本文基于案例推理（CBR）法，在案例检索过程中，结合熵权法和网络分析法（ANP）优化案例属性权重，通过相似度计算得出目标项目的相似源案例，利用源案例的技术经验解决目标项目的技术复杂性难题。同时，从目标项目的组织复杂性和任务复杂性方面，总结相关的复杂性治理策略，为探寻适合重大工程项目复杂性治理策略提供理论依据。

关键词:重大工程;多维复杂性;治理策略;案例推理

Abstract:

Megaprojects is an extremely complex social and economic system with multidimensional complexity, including organizational complexity, task complexity, technical complexity, environmental complexity, institutional complexity, and social complexity. Based on the case-based reasoning (CBR) method, in the process of case retrieval, entropy weight method and network analysis method (ANP) are combined in this study to optimize the weight of case attributes, and the similar source cases of the target project are obtained through similarity calculation, and the technical experience of source cases is used to solve the technical complexity problems of the target project. At the same time, from the organizational complexity and task complexity of the target project, the complexity governance strategy is summarized, which provides a theoretical basis for the complexity governance strategy suitable for megaprojects.

Key words:Megaprojects; Multidimensional complexity; Governance strategy; Case-based reasoning