科技计划项目创新绩效的系统动力学分析 ——基于科技监督的视角

System Dynamics Analysis on Innovation Performance of Science and Technology Projects: Based on the Perspective of Science and Technology Supervision

摘要:

社会监督者的加入使得科技监督系统更加复杂，单纯从政策和管理视角进行分析研究不足以反映科技监督系统运行的内在逻辑，同时为反映整个系统的稳定均衡与外界动态反馈之间的关系，在分析当前科技创新治理体系下科技监督系统的运行机理和内涵的基础上，构建以政府、项目管理者、项目执行者、社会监督者为主体的系统动力学模型，分析影响监督系统运行的关键要素及要素之间的反馈关系，并利用计算机仿真软件分析各监督主体行为选择、交互影响，预判系统的未来发展。研究表明：科技监督系统稳定运行时，创新绩效呈现前期快中期慢后期稳定的变化趋势；社会监督者的监督成本低、监督效果优；黑天鹅事件对科技创新系统的影响与事件的影响程度以及后续风险应对和处置密切相关。

Abstract:

The science and technology supervision system has become more complex due to the involvement of social supervisors. In this case, the analysis just from policy and management cannot completely reflect the internal logic of the system operation. In order to illustrate the relationship between the stable equilibrium of the whole system and the external dynamic feedback more clearly, this paper builds a system dynamics model with the government, project managers, project executors and social supervisors as the main body on the basis of analyzing the operation mechanism and connotation of the supervision system. The key elements that affect the operation of the supervision system and the feedback relationship between the elements is analyzed. In addition, Computer simulation software is used to analyze the behavior choice and interaction of each supervisor, and predict the development of the system. The research shows that, when the science and technology supervision system operates stably, the innovation performance presents a stable change trend in the early, middle and late stages.The supervision cost of social supervisors is low and the supervision effect is excellent. The impact of the Black Swan incident on the science and technology innovation system is closely related to the impact of the event and the subsequent risk response and disposal.