碳约束机制下能源转型路径和宏观影响评估-以粤港澳大湾区为例

Energy transformation path and macro impact assessment under carbon constraint mechanism -- a case study of the Greater Bay Area

摘要:

为实现粤港澳大湾区在碳强度控制目标下经济社会发展和碳减排任务的双赢,需量化评估能源转型路径在碳目标约束和驱动下传导效应的有效性,本研究构建能源经济环境评估模型,设计了基准情景、能源转型情景和深度能源转型情景,研究结果显示：大湾区碳排放达峰需要碳约束和能源转型的共同发力,无施加这两项措施的基准情景在2035年前无法达峰,转型和深度转型情景下的不同层度的碳约束和能源转型将推动粤港澳大湾区分别于2025年和2022年达峰。相比基准情景,2035年碳成本和能源结构转型促进GDP增长了0.68%,深度转型则造成0.34%的GDP损失。碳达峰目标和能源转型驱动下,各行业投资结构发生转变,转型情景下2035年度总投资11万亿,带动GDP达到31万亿,相比基准情景年度新增约8000亿,电力新增600亿,工业新增5000亿,交通新增400亿,服务业增加2000亿。服务业、交通、电力部门的就业分别增长9.7万人、12.6万人、3万人。结果显示合理设置碳总量控制目标,系统呈现的碳价格有利于引导用能部门的结构替代,反过来促进经济GDP增长、产业结构低碳转型、就业率提高以及节能减碳目标更好的实现。

Abstract:

In order to achieve the win-win situation of economic and social development and carbon emission reduction under the carbon intensity control target in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the conduction effect of the energy transformation path under the constraint and drive of the carbon target. This study constructs the energy economy and environment assessment model, and designs the benchmark scenario, energy transformation scenario and deep energy transformation scenario, The results show that the peak of carbon emissions in Greater Bay Area needs the joint efforts of carbon pricing mechanism and energy structure transformation. The benchmark scenario without these two measures cannot reach the peak before 2035. Carbon pricing and energy transformation at different levels under the transformation and deep transformation scenarios will promote the peak of Greater Bay Area in 2025 and 2022 respectively. Compared with the benchmark scenario, the transformation of carbon cost and energy structure in 2035 promoted the growth of GDP by 0.68%. The deep transformation caused a loss of 0.34% of GDP. Driven by the carbon peak target and energy transformation, the investment structure of various industries has changed. Under the transformation scenario, the total investment in 2035 is 11 trillion, driving the GDP to reach 31 trillion. Compared with the benchmark scenario, the annual increase is about 800 billion, the increase of electric power is 60 billion, the increase of industry is 500 billion, the increase of transportation is 40 billion, and the increase of service industry is 200 billion. Employment in the service, transportation and power sectors increased by 97000, 126000 and 30000 respectively. The results show that setting the total carbon control target reasonably, the carbon price presented by the system is conducive to guiding the structural substitution of energy consumption departments, which in turn promotes the growth of economic GDP, the low-carbon transformation of industrial structure, the improvement of employment rate and the better realization of the goal of energy conservation and carbon reduction.