香港能源消费碳排放的演变趋势及其影响因素

Examining the Dynamics and Determinants of energy-related carbon emission in Mega City: A Case Study of Hong Kong SAR, China

摘要:

本文采用对数平均迪氏分解法（LMDI），对1983-2018年香港二氧化碳排放的演变趋势及影响因素进行系统解析，主要研究结果如下：（1）香港能源消费结构以煤炭和石油为主，在能源价格因素的影响下，不同阶段能源消费结构变化明显，从大陆进口电力对其能源消费结构优化具有促进作用。（2）经济增长和人口集聚是导致能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素，由于近年来经济发展缺乏新动能，经济增长对碳排放的助推作用逐渐减弱。（3）能源消费强度、能源消费结构和能源替代效应是遏制碳排放的主要影响因素，其中能源消费强度的碳减排作用最为显著。香港控制碳排放应继续实施强有力的能源消费总量和碳排放总量控制策略，重视未来能源价格波动的潜在影响，保持与珠三角以电力进口为主的跨境能源合作，拓宽天然气的国际和国内供应渠道。

Abstract:

In this study, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model based on the Kaya identity was adopted to analyze the influencing factors of energy-related carbon emissions in Hong Kong from 1983 to 2018. The results show that: (1) Coal and Oil dominated Hong Kong’s energy consumption structure. Under the influence of energy prices, energy consumption structure at different stages is different. Imports of electricity from China mainland optimized Hong Kong’s energy consumption structure. (2) Economic growth and population size were two dominant contributors influencing the growth of carbon emissions. (4) Energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure and energy substitution effect played significant effects to mitigate carbon emissions. Energy consumption intensity was the most important factor to curb carbon emissions. More attention should be paid to the potential impact of energy price fluctuations in the future. More efforts should be made to maintain cross-border energy cooperation, namely, electricity imports with the Pearl River Delta. In addition, supply channels based on international and domestic markets should also be expanded.