基于系统动力学的中国居民生活碳排放模拟

Simulation of Chinese Household Carbon Emission Based on System Dynamics

摘要:

随着经济发展与城市化的推进,居民生活碳排放量显著增加。本文从直接与间接排放源角度,运用系统动力学方法分析了人口、经济以及能源对于中国居民生活碳排放的影响,并对中国2010—2030年三种不同政策情景下的居民生活碳排放进行了仿真模拟。未来,居民生活碳排放将保持上升的趋势,直接碳排放将呈现先上升后下降的趋势,间接碳排放将保持迅速攀升的趋势,居民生活碳排放强度将持续下降,因地制宜进行低碳建设等措施将成为减排的重要保障。

关键词:居民生活碳排放;系统动力学;家庭能耗;消费支出;情景分析

Abstract:

With economic development and urbanization, carbon emissions from residential life have increased significantly. This paper analyzes the impact of population, economy and energy on residential carbon emissions in China from the perspective of direct and indirect emission sources, and simulates the residential carbon emissions under three different policy scenarios from 2010 to 2030. In the future, the carbon emissions of residential life will maintain an upward trend, direct carbon emissions will show an upward and then downward trend, indirect carbon emissions will maintain a rapid climbing trend, the carbon emissions intensity of residential life will continue to decline, and measures such as low-carbon construction in accordance with local conditions will become an important guarantee for emission reduction.

Key words:household carbon emission; system dynamics; household energy consumption; consumption expenditure; scenario analysis