中国能源绿色消费水平的时空演化特征及驱动因素： 基于“社会—技术”系统转型视角

Spatial and Temporal Evolutionary Characteristics and Driving Factors of Energy Green Consumption Levels in China: Based on the Perspective of Socio-Technical System Transition

摘要:

探索基于能源转型相关理论框架构建评价指标，从宏观上量化研究中国能源绿色消费水平的时空特征。以中国30个省份为研究对象，从“社会—技术”系统转型视角构建包含7个维度共20个具体指标的中国能源绿色消费水平综合评价指标体系，利用其2006－2019年相关面板数据，采用熵权TOPSIS法、空间计量模型从时空双维度对其能源绿色消费水平演化特征及驱动因素进行实证分析。结果表明：（1）区域能源绿色消费水平呈波动、稳升、速升3阶段的螺旋攀升趋势，具有明显马太效应，呈“东高西低”的集聚发展态势。（2）在影响区域能源绿色消费水平的7类驱动因素中，低碳产业结构、能源新基建、科学技术发展、环境规制、城镇化、城市绿化具有正向空间直接效应，高碳能源消费结构具有负向空间直接效应；科学技术发展、城镇化具有正向空间间接效应，低碳产业结构、能源新基建具有负向空间间接效应，其余因素的空间间接效应不明显。因此，应注意加强区域间科学技术合作、深化生态文明与可持续发展理念，推动中国能源绿色消费水平稳步上升。

Abstract:

Exploring the construction of evaluation indicators based on the theoretical framework related to energy transition to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of China's energy green consumption level from a macro perspective. With 30 Chinese provinces as the research objects, a comprehensive evaluation index system of China's energy green consumption level containing 20 specific indicators in 7 dimensions is constructed from the perspective of socio-technical system transformation, and the evolution characteristics and driving factors of their energy green consumption levels are analyzed empirically in both spatial and temporal dimensions based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019 adopting entropy-weighted TOPSIS method and spatial econometric model. The results show that: (1) the regional energy green consumption level is fluctuating, rising steadily and rising rapidly in 3 stages of spiral climbing trend, with obvious Matthew effect, and the development trend of " high in the east and low in the west" clustering. (2) Among the seven types of driving factors affecting energy green consumption level in the region, low-carbon industrial structure, new energy infrastructure, scientific and technological development, environmental regulation, urbanization, and urban greening have positive spatial direct effects, while high-carbon energy consumption structure has negative spatial direct effects; scientific and technological development and urbanization have positive spatial indirect effects, low-carbon industrial structure and new energy infrastructure have negative spatial indirect effects, and the spatial indirect effects of the remaining factors are not obvious. Therefore, attention should be paid to strengthening inter-regional scientific and technological cooperation, deepening the concept of ecological civilization and sustainable development, and promoting the steady rise of China's energy green consumption level.