中国工业绿色发展的时空格局及障碍因子

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Obstacle Factors of China's Green Industrial Development

摘要:

探究中国工业绿色发展的时空格局特征、演变趋势以及障碍因子，为推动工业走绿色高质量发展道路提供参考。基于2011－2019年中国30个省份面板数据，构建包含绿色总量、绿色效率、绿色创新、绿色治理和绿色保障五大维度的工业绿色发展水平评价指标体系，利用灰色关联-TOPSIS模型测度其水平值，运用Dagum分解法、空间马尔科夫链分析等方法探究其时空格局及其演变趋势，并利用障碍因子诊断模型诊断其关键障碍。结果表明：30个省份整体及各地区工业绿色发展水平不断提升，但整体水平偏低；空间分异明显，表现出“东－中－西”递减格局；空间关联性增强，形成以环渤海湾和长江三角洲为主的“高高”集聚区和以东北、西南和西北为主的“低低”集聚区；总体空间差异呈扩大趋势，区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源；发展水平类型的空间转移与邻域水平关系密切，邻域水平越高，向上转移概率越大，但低等级区短时间向上转移的概率较小；绿色创新、绿色保障和绿色总量是工业绿色发展的主要短板，其中规模效益、创新能力、创新潜力、治理强度和制度保障是工业绿色发展的关键障碍因子。最后针对研究发现，分别从补齐短板、缩小差距、突破障碍等方面因地制宜提出工业绿色发展的政策建议。

Abstract:

Exploring the spatio-temporal pattern, evolution trend and obstacle factors of China's industrial green development can provide reference for promoting high-quality industrial development. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2011 to 2019, this paper constructs the industrial green development level index system of green total, green efficiency, green innovation, green governance and green guarantee. The gray correlation degree TOPSIS model is used to measure the level of industrial green development, the Dagum Gini coefficient method, Markov chain analysis are used to explore its spatio-temporal pattern and evolution trend, and the obstacle factor diagnosis model is used to diagnose its key obstacles. The results show that the level of industrial green development in China and various regions is constantly improving, but the overall level is low; the spatial differentiation of industrial green development level is obvious, showing a decreasing pattern of "East-Middle-West". The spatial correlation of the level of industrial green development is enhanced, forming the HH agglomeration area dominated by theBohai Bay and the Yangtze River Delta, and the LL agglomeration area dominated by the Northeast, Southwest, and Northwest. The overall spatial differences in the level of industrial green development are expanding, and regional differences are the main source of the overall differences; the spatial transfer of the development level type is closely related to the neighborhood level. The higher the neighborhood level, the greater the probability of upward transfer, but the probability of short-term upward transfer in low-level areas is small. Green innovation, green guarantee and green total are the main shortcomings of industrial green development, among which scale benefit, innovation ability, innovation potential, governance intensity and institutional guarantee are the key obstacles to industrial green development. Based on this, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for industrial green development from the aspects of complementing its weaknesses, narrowing the gap and breaking through obstacles.