数字金融发展对区域创新的影响路径：基于“双循环”视阈

Impact Path of Digital Finance Development on Regional Innovation: From the Perspective of "Dual Circulation"

摘要:

在“双循环”经济发展新格局下，为更好地引导金融避虚向实、服务实体经济创新投入，从国内国际双循环视角分析数字金融对区域创新的影响路径。利用2011－2019年我国31个省份平衡面板数据，采用回归模型和中介效应模型进行实证分析，并引入区域金融监管和产业结构升级因素进行异质性分析。结果显示：数字金融及其分指数都能正向促进区域创新，其中使用深度促进程度最大、数字化程度次之、覆盖广度最小；数字金融通过“双循环”促进区域创新，在内循环方面通过促进居民消费和提高信贷水平产生促进效应，在外循环方面通过提高对外直接投资水平、外商直接投资水平和促进国际贸易产生促进效应；在高金融监管强度和高第二产业占比的情况下，数字金融的促进效应更强。最后从加快传统金融业数字化转型、形成供需协同的区域创新水平发展动力、科技驱动型金融监管创新和数字金融与实体经济结合四方面提出对策建议。

Abstract:

Under the new pattern of "dual circulation" economic development, in order to better guide the financial sector to avoid the false and serve the innovation input of the real economy, the paper analyzes the impact path of digital finance on regional innovation from the perspective of domestic and international dual circulation. Using the balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019, regression model and intermediary effect model are used for empirical analysis, and regional financial supervision and industrial structure upgrading factors are introduced for heterogeneity analysis. The results show that digital finance and its sub indexes can positively promote regional innovation, among which the depth of use is the largest, the degree of digitalization is the second, and the coverage is the smallest; Digital finance promotes regional innovation through "double circulation", promotes residents' consumption and credit level through internal circulation, and promotes foreign direct investment and international trade through external circulation; In the case of high financial supervision intensity and high proportion of the secondary industry, the promotion effect of digital finance is stronger. Finally, it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects: speeding up the digital transformation of traditional financial industry, forming the development impetus of regional innovation level of supply and demand synergy, scientific and technological driven financial regulatory innovation and the combination of digital finance and real economy.