科技大国能源消费结构演变及影响因素研究

A Study on the Evolution and Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption Structure in Major Scientific and Technological Power

摘要:

利用灰色关联度与面板回归模型探讨近30年主要科技大国能源消费结构演变及影响因素。研究表明,能源消费结构演变总体呈去碳化、清洁化、安全化特征,表现为能源消费中石油及煤炭降低、天然气缓慢增长、核能波动下降、可再生能源较快增长的发展态势。城镇化、人口规模、产业结构、技术进步、对外经济贸易、人均GDP与各国化石能源消费占比高度关联,但各国最大关联因子不尽相同。能源消费强度、人均GDP、城镇人口占比、进出口额占GDP比对化石能源消费占比具有显著影响,其中城镇人口占比的正向影响最大,人均GDP的抑制作用最强。相较而言,中国能源消费量较大,结构长期保持为“煤炭-石油-可再生能源-天然气-核能”,化石能源消费与产业结构、能源消费强度、人口规模关联度较高。

Abstract:

Using grey correlation degree and panel regression model, this paper discusses the evolution and influencing factors of energy consumption structure of major technological powers in recent 30 years. Studies have shown that the evolution of energy consumption structure is generally characterized by decarbonization, cleanliness and security, which is manifested as the decline of oil and coal in energy consumption, the slow growth of natural gas, the decline of nuclear energy fluctuation and the rapid growth of renewable energy. Urbanization, population size, industrial structure, technological progress, foreign economy and trade, per capita GDP are highly correlated with the proportion of fossil energy consumption in various countries, but the largest correlation factors are not the same. Energy consumption intensity, per capita GDP, the proportion of urban population, and the proportion of import and export in GDP have significant indigenous impacts on the proportion of fossil energy consumption. Among them, the proportion of urban population has the greatest positive impact, and the inhibitory effect of per capita GDP is the strongest. In comparison, China "s energy consumption is relatively large, and its structure has remained " coal-oil-renewable energy-natural gas-nuclear energy " for a long time. High correlation between fossil energy consumption and industrial structure, energy consumption intensity and population size.