企业与消费者对颠覆性技术采纳行为的动态演化及影响因素： 基于演化博弈视角

Dynamic Evolution and Influential Factors of Adoption Behaviors of Disruptive Technologies by Enterprises and Consumers: An Evolutionary Game Perspective

摘要:

关注企业与消费者对颠覆性技术采纳行为在颠覆性技术实现颠覆过程中发挥的作用以及相关影响因素，从而为企业应对颠覆性技术时的决策提供参考。以参与方有限理性和信息不完全为前提，构建企业与消费者对颠覆性技术采纳行为的演化博弈模型，分析两者采纳颠覆性技术与否的稳定策略，并借助MATLAB进行数值模拟仿真，分析验证该模型具体的演化路径，从而探究两者在颠覆性技术采纳行为博弈过程中决定双方最终策 略选择的影响因素。结果表明：（1）企业与消费者对颠覆性技术的初始态度将对两者采纳颠覆性技术的行为产生影响；（2）颠覆性技术产品为企业与消费者带来的收益大小、企业选择采纳颠覆性技术所需投入的成本大小、企业选择不采纳颠覆性技术所需支付的机会成本大小、消费者选择采纳颠覆性技术产品所需支付的成本大小等因素，均会对企业和消费者在颠覆性技术采纳行为上的最终策略选择存在较为显著的影响。因此建议企业建立健全颠覆性技术常态化管理机制与跟踪机制，优化在颠覆性技术采纳行为过程中的成本投入和成果转化水平，以充分实现颠覆性技术的战略价值。

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the role and related influencing factors of the adoption behavior of disruptive technology by both enterprises and consumers in the process of disruptive technology implementation, in order to provide reference for decision-making of enterprises in response to disruptive technology. Based on the assumptions of limited rationality and incomplete information of participants, an evolutionary game model of the adoption behavior of disruptive technology by enterprises and consumers is constructed, and the stable strategies of whether to adopt disruptive technology are analyzed. The specific evolutionary path of the model is analyzed and verified by numerical simulation using MATLAB, in order to explore the influencing factors that determine the final strategic choices of both parties in the game of adoption behavior of disruptive technology. The results show that: (1) the initial attitudes of enterprises and consumers towards disruptive technology will affect their adoption behavior; (2) factors such as the size of benefits brought by disruptive technology products to enterprises and consumers, the cost of investment required for enterprises to adopt disruptive technology, the opportunity cost required for enterprises not to adopt disruptive technology, and the cost required for consumers to adopt disruptive technology products will all have a significant impact on the final strategic choices of enterprises and consumers in the adoption behavior of disruptive technology. Therefore, it is recommended that enterprises establish a sound management mechanism and tracking mechanism for disruptive technology, optimize the cost investment and achievement conversion level in the process of disruptive technology adoption behavior, and fully realize the strategic value of disruptive technology.