基于VAR模型的科技进步、城市化与绿色发展关系实证分析 ——以广东省为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Scientific-Technological Progress, Urbanization and green development based on VAR model——in Guangdong province as an example

摘要:

为了探究城市化、科技进步与绿色发展三者之间的关系，以科技进步、城市化与绿色发展的相互作用机制为理论基础，依据广东省1993～2020年的时序数据，对科技进步、城市化与绿色发展三者关系通过应用VAR模型，利用脉冲响应函数和Granger 因果检验、方差分解等方法进行了实证分析。研究表明：科技进步和城市化对绿色发展具有正向影响作用；绿色发展对城市化高质量发展具有促进作用；城市化推动了科技进步，而科技进步对城市化的影响并不显著。为此，研究结论对科技发展、城市化与绿色发展等相关政策制定提供了实证证据，使得广东在今后能够更好的坚持以科技发展、高质量的城市化进程推动区域经济社会绿色发展。

Abstract:

To explore the theories of relationship among scientific-technological progress , the urbanization and Green development, as well as mutual promotion of the three, this paper studies theoretically based on the interaction mechanism of urbanization, scientific-technological progress and sustainable economic development, according to the time-series data of Guangdong Province from 1993 to 2020 which is using VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis the dynamic interactions among urbanization, scientific-technological progress and sustainable economic development. The results showed that urbanization and scientific-technological progress are the main factors affecting Green development， Moreover, sustainable economic development, to a certain extent, can promote a rapid advance of urbanization quality. In addition, the urbanization can push forward the advance of scientific-technological progress, while the effect of scientific-technological progress on urbanization is not significant. Through the analysis of the results, reasonable policy suggestions are put forward, so that Guangdong can better adhere to the scientific and technological development and high-quality urbanization process to promote the green development of regional economy and society in the future.