新旧动能转换的时空演变与区域差异——基于长三角与大湾区城市群的比较研究

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Regional Differences of the Replacement of the Old Drivers of Growth: A Comparative Study Based on the Urban Agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area

摘要:

在长三角一体化和粤港澳大湾区建设上升为国家战略的背景下，对比分析两大城市群新旧动能转换水平、时空演变规律与区域差异，对两大城市群加快新旧动能转换步伐和推广先行示范效应具有重要现实意义。从需求侧、供给侧和结构转换侧三个动能维度构建评价指标体系，运用组合赋权法测算2012-2019年两大城市群36个城市新旧动能转换水平，并利用自然断点法、核密度法等探究两大城市群新旧动能转换时空演变规律与区域差异。研究得出：①长三角与大湾区城市群新旧动能转换分别呈现出“类N”型和“类U”型波动增长趋势，不充分性特征明显；②长三角城市群新旧动能转换表现出“西北低，东南高”的空间分布、“多极化”的空间格局以及“沙漏型”的空间层级特点，而大湾区城市群新旧动能转换表现出“由东向西”递减的空间分布、“单极化”的空间格局以及“倒金字塔型”的空间层级特点；③两大城市群核密度曲线延展性均由“右拖尾”转变为“收敛”趋势，表明两大城市群区域中心城市新旧动能转换中心极化现象得到逐年改善，中心城市对周边城市的虹吸效应减弱。

Abstract:

Under the background of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area becoming a national strategy, this paper compares and analyzes the conversion level, temporal and spatial evolution laws and regional differences of the two major urban agglomerations, and accelerates the pace and promotion of the replacement of the old drivers of growth for the two major urban agglomerations. The first demonstration effect has important practical significance. The evaluation index system is constructed from the three kinetic energy dimensions of the demand side, the supply side and the structural transformation side, and the combined weighting method is used to calculate the replacement of the old drivers of growth in 36 cities in the two major urban agglomerations from 2012 to 2019. Then we explored the temporal and spatial evolution laws and regional differences of the replacement of the old drivers of growth between the two major urban agglomerations. The study concludes that :①the replacement of the old drivers of growth in the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration shows “N" type and "U" type of fluctuating growth trend respectively, and the characteristics of inadequacy are obvious;②The spatial distribution of the “Southeast High”, the “multi-polar” spatial pattern, and the “hourglass-shaped” spatial hierarchy characteristics, while the replacement of the old drivers of growth in the Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration shows a decreasing spatial distribution from “east to west”, “unipolar” spatial distribution. The spatial pattern of "inverted pyramid" and the characteristics of "inverted pyramid" spatial hierarchy; ③the ductility of the core density curves of the two major urban agglomerations has changed from "right trailing" to "converging" trend, indicating that the two major urban agglomerations regional central cities have transformed from old to new drivers of growth. The phenomenon of central polarization has been improved year by year, and the siphon effect of the central city on the surrounding cities has weakened.