基于能源政策模拟模型的广州市2050年实现碳中和的路径研究

Research on Realization Pathway of 2050 Carbon Neutral in Guangzhou Based on Energy Policy Simulator Model

摘要:

在中国快速城镇化进程中，为尽早推动城市层级的碳中和路径规划工作并作出相应行动，须重点关注城市电力、交通、工业、建筑等行业的能源政策目标制定，因此，以广州市为对象，通过构建能源政策模拟模型，设置基准情景、政策情景和碳中和情景模拟广州市到2050年的能源消费和碳排放情况，分析其重点部门的减排潜力，并评估碳中和情景下各项政策措施的减排贡献。结果显示：在碳中和情景下，广州市能源消费将于2030年达峰，碳排放量将于2026年达峰，到2050年全市碳排放将降至848万t，其中有611万t来自交通领域；电力部门的脱碳将是广州市实现碳中和最重要的途径，碳减排潜力由大到小的其他部门依次为交通、工业、制氢业和建筑；累计碳减排贡献最大的5项政策依次为电力系统零碳化、建筑能效标准提升、交通领域生物燃料替代、工业能效标准提升和氢燃料交通工具销售占比提升。

Abstract:

In the process of China’s rapid urbanization, in order to promote the work of carbon neutral pathway planning at the city level and take corresponding actions as soon as possible, it is necessary to focus on how to set energy policy’s goals in urban electricity, transportation, industry, building and other sectors. Therefore, taking Guangzhou as the object, the Guangzhou Energy Policy Simulator (EPS-Guangzhou) model is built to simulate the energy consumption and carbon emissions of Guangzhou by 2050 by setting the baseline scenario, policy scenario and carbon neutral scenario. And then the carbon emission reduction potential of the key sectors is analyzed to evaluate the emission reduction contribution of various policy measures under the carbon neutral scenario. The research results show that under the carbon neutral scenario, Guangzhou's energy consumption will peak in 2030, and its carbon emissions will peak in 2026. By 2050, Guangzhou's carbon emissions will drop to 8.48 million tons, 6.11 million tons of which will be from the transportation sector. The decarbonization of electricity system will be the most important way to achieve carbon neutrality in Guangzhou, with the other sectors in descending order of carbon reduction potential being transportation, industry, hydrogen and building sectors. The five policies contributing the most to cumulative emission reductions of the carbon neutral goal will be zero carbonization of power systems, improvement of energy efficiency standards in the building industry, substitution of biofuels in the transportation sector, improvement of industrial energy efficiency standards, and the increase in the proportion of sales of hydrogen fuel vehicles.