碳排放权交易试点政策的碳减排效应——基于绿色技术创新和能源结构转型的中介效应

Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of the Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policy: Based on the Mediating Effect of Green Technology Innovation and Energy Structure Transformation

摘要:

分析中国碳排放权交易试点地区的碳减排状况，为现行碳排放权交易试点政策改进提供经验依据。基于2005－2019年中国30个省份的面板数据，运用多期双重差分模型检验碳排放权交易试点政策是否存在碳减排效应，并采用平行趋势检验、安慰剂、PSM-DID等方法检验回归结果的稳健性，通过中介效应分析检验绿色技术创新和能源结构转型的传导路径，最后分析试点政策的地区异质性。结果表明：（1）试点政策显著降低试点地区的碳排放量和碳排放强度，存在显著的碳减排效应；（2）绿色技术创新和能源结构转型都是试点政策实现碳减排效应的作用路径，绿色技术创新在降低试点地区碳排放量和碳排放强度中分别发挥了12.38%和5.51%的作用，能源结构转型则分别发挥了3.74%和0.47%的中介效应作用；（3）北京的碳减排效应在6个试点地区中最强，其次是上海和天津，湖北和重庆的整体碳减排效应较弱。研究结论为更好实现“双碳”目标、同时推动能源结构转型和绿色技术创新提供的主要启示包括，要加强全国碳市场建设、因地制宜地制定差异化减碳政策等。

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the carbon emission reduction status in China's carbon emission trading pilot areas to provide empirical basis for the improvement of the current carbon emission trading pilot policies. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019, the multi-period differential model was used to test the carbon emission reduction effect of pilot carbon emission trading policies, and the parallel trend test, placebo, PSM-DID and other methods were used to test the robustness of regression results. Through the mediation effect analysis, the transmission path of green technology innovation and energy structure transformation is tested. Finally, the regional heterogeneity of pilot policies is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the pilot policy significantly reduces the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in the pilot area, and there is a significant carbon emission reduction effect; (2) Both green technology innovation and energy structure transformation are the pathways for pilot policies to achieve carbon emission reduction effect. Green technology innovation plays a role of 12.38% and 5.51% in reducing carbon emission intensity in pilot areas, and energy structure transformation plays a role of 3.74% and 0.47% in mediating effect, respectively. (3) The carbon emission reduction effect of Beijing is the strongest among the 6 pilot regions, followed by Shanghai and Tianjin, and the overall carbon emission reduction effect of Hubei and Chongqing is weak. The conclusions of the study provide the main enlightenment for better realizing the "dual carbon" goal, promoting the transformation of energy structure and green technology innovation, including strengthening the construction of national carbon market, and formulating differentiated carbon reduction policies according to local conditions.