高技术产业赶超机会窗口理论内涵与应用路径研究

Research on the connotation and application path of opportunity Window theory of High-tech Industry catch-up

摘要:

机会窗口理论为解释后发者实现高技术赶超提供新的分析视角，但其关键概念和运行逻辑仍然较为模糊，较难用于指导实践。机会窗口在高技术产业赶超过程中之所以能够发挥作用，重要原因在于其降低后发者的进入成本，而机会窗口理论更好地指导实践的关键在于能够在事前获得有效识别。具体而言，低进入成本是机会窗口发挥优势的前提，其逻辑内涵在于客观上存在进入成本降低的事件或趋势，而后后发者对高技术产业作出恰当的应对，引发常规优势后形成竞争优势，从而实现对先发者的赶超。然而，机会窗口本身具有较大的滞后性，因此从产业层面来看，沉没成本很可能会与低进入成本的优势相抵消，但可以从国家层次出发，结合本国的国情并发挥有为政府作用，通过政策工具提高高技术产业对于机会窗口的识别概率和利用能力。为此，政府应注重根据机会窗口的作用机制，根据不同的高技术产业制定更加具有针对性的体系化政策，更好地以机会窗口理论指导高技术产业的赶超实践。

Abstract:

The high-tech industry is gradually becoming the main battlefield of the competition between countries. The window of opportunity theory provides a new analytical perspective for the latecomers to catch up in high-tech. There are many researches on this theory, but some key concepts and operation logic are still fuzzy, which leads to some obstacles in applying the theory to practice. This paper studies the logical connotation and application path of the window of opportunity theory, and finds that the logical connotation of the window of opportunity is that there are objectively events or trends to reduce the entry cost, coupled with the initiative response of the latecomer, and then the conventional advantages are generated to form a competitive advantage to catch up with the first mover. In addition, the logical connotation of the window of opportunity itself determines that it cannot be identified in advance. Therefore, the government, using the window of opportunity theory to guide practice, should formulate industrial policies at the national level, accurately identify high-tech industries whose entry costs can be reduced, and formulate relevant policies according to the identification results to encourage enterprises to respond abnormally. And the dynamic policy support of the whole life cycle should be carried out to guide the industry to give full play to its conventional advantages to catch up quickly.