中国制造业如何能够在现有生产能力的基础上获得产业升级是一个学术界普遍关注的议题。为此,本文以知识溢出为切入点,通过揭示中、美、德制造业的发展现状及产业升级的路径差异来为中国制造业发展寻找可借鉴的产业升级模式。以近三十年全球2000余种制造业300万条贸易数据作为研究样本,并以中、美、德三国作为研究对象,综合运用社会网络方法、产品空间理论和Logit回归模型,深入探讨了中、美、德制造业知识溢在产业升级过程中的作用机制。研究发现：中国制造业产品空间核心区域的产品尚未形成规模化的生产模式；中国制造业的产业升级更多遵循“渐进性发展”路径,盲目追求知识溢出的效果反而可能带来风险；中国加入WTO以来,不仅能够依靠生产能力累积而实现渐进式产业升级,还可以在产品生产能力累积与知识溢出强度的交互作用下,通过破坏式创新实现产业升级。

How China"s manufacturing industry can achieve industrial upgrading on the basis of existing production capacity is a topic of general concern in academia. To this end, this paper takes knowledge spillover as the starting point, and seeks for reference for the development of China"s manufacturing industry by revealing the development status of the manufacturing industry in China, the United States, and Germany and the differences in the path of industrial upgrading. Taking 3 million trade data of more than 2,000 kinds of manufacturing industries around the world in the past 30 years as the research sample, and taking China, the United States, and Germany as the research objects, comprehensively using the social network method, product space theory and Logit regression model, it has an in-depth discussion on China, the United States, and Germany. The role mechanism of American and German manufacturing knowledge spillover in the process of industrial upgrading. The study found that: the products in the core area of China"s manufacturing product space have not yet formed a large-scale production model; the industrial upgrading of China"s manufacturing industry more follows the "incremental development" path, and the blind pursuit of the effect of knowledge spillover may bring risks; China"s participation in Since the WTO, it is not only possible to achieve incremental industrial upgrading by relying on the accumulation of production capacity, but also to achieve industrial upgrading through disruptive innovation under the interaction of the accumulation of product production capacity and the intensity of knowledge spillovers.

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国家自然科学基金项目“基于专利的电动汽车产业基础技术演化机理与政策研究”（71673036）