粤港澳大湾区出口制造业高质量发展水平评价——基于犹豫模糊熵权与TOPSIS模型的实证分析

Research on the evaluation of high-quality development level of export manufacturing in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area:Empirical Analysis based on hesitant fuzzy entropy weight and TOPSIS model

摘要:

为粤港澳大湾区制造业高质量发展寻找新动力和新方向，以2012－2019年粤港澳大湾区12个出口制造行业为样本，从产业发展视角提出以结构优化、质量进步、技术创新为核心内容的出口制造业高质量发展理论模型，运用犹豫模糊熵权和TOPSIS法进行量化评测，实证分析粤港澳大湾区出口制造行业高质量发展的现状、优劣势以及实现升级的具体路径。研究发现：粤港澳大湾区的出口制造业高质量发展总体上处在中等偏上水平，呈现一定的波动增长态势，其中行业结构水平成为该区域的优势项，但同时也存在行业发展不平衡、市场感知不足、研发创新能力提升空间大、代工思维影响遗留较强等问题；鞋类、服装、箱包等劳动密集型和资源依赖型制造业的行业结构水平较低、创新能力较弱。为此，粤港澳大湾区要进一步深化供给侧结构性改革，推动出口制造业与智能制造的融合发展，同时加强国家质量基础设施建设，实施品牌战略和强化质量品牌建设等。

Abstract:

In search of new momentum and direction for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, this study takes 12 export manufacturing industries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2012 to 2019 as samples and proposes a theoretical model for the high-quality development of export manufacturing industry from the perspective of industrial development, with structural optimization, quality improvement, and technological innovation as its core content. Using hesitant fuzzy entropy weight and TOPSIS methods for quantitative evaluation, this study empirically analyzes the current situation, strengths and weaknesses, and specific paths for upgrading the high-quality development of export manufacturing industries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results show that the overall high-quality development of export manufacturing industries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is at a medium-to-high level, showing a certain fluctuating growth trend. Among them, the industrial structure level has become an advantage in this region, but there are also problems such as unbalanced industrial development, insufficient market perception, large room for improvement in research and innovation capabilities, and strong residual influence of OEM thinking. Labor-intensive and resource-dependent manufacturing industries such as footwear, clothing, and luggage have lower industrial structure levels and weaker innovation capabilities. Therefore, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should further deepen supply-side structural reforms, promote the integration of export manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing, while strengthening the construction of national quality infrastructure, implementing brand strategies and strengthening quality brand building.