新兴技术的治理困境与应对路径

The Governance Dilemma and Countermeasures of Emerging Technologies

摘要:

第四次工业革命背景下新兴技术表现出比以往更高程度的不确定性、更大范围的颠覆性、更不均衡的赋权特征，使新兴技术治理面临多重挑战。新兴技术不确定性与治理政策稳定性间的矛盾形成了本源性治理困境，潜在颠覆性与治理范式延续性之间的矛盾形成了次生性治理困境，新兴技术赋权特点与治理结构平衡之间的矛盾形成了结构性治理困境。基于治理困境的形成原理，采用亲和关系图法分析了六类治理策略的概念要素，提出了前置型、响应型、试探型三类应对路径，分别侧重早期预见与上游参与、快速响应与下游参与、学习探索与动态干预，为防范和应对新兴技术治理挑战提供了启示。

Abstract:

In the Fourth Industrial Revolution, emerging technologies exhibit a higher degree of uncertainty, a greater range of subversiveness, and more unbalanced empowerment characteristics than before, which makes the governance of emerging technologies face multiple challenges. The contradiction between the uncertainty of emerging technologies and the stability of governance policies forms an intrinsic governance dilemma. The contradiction between potential disruptiveness and continuity of governance paradigm forms a secondary governance dilemma. The contradiction between new empowering characteristics of emerging technologies and the balance of governance structure forms a structural governance dilemma. Based on the formation mechanism of the governance dilemma, this research employs Affinity Diagram to analyze the conceptual elements of six governance strategies and proposes three types of diminishment paths, including pre-type path, responsive path, and tentative path, focusing on early foresight and upstream participation, rapid response and downstream participation, learning exploration and dynamic intervention, respectively. The results provide enlightenments for preventing and responding to emerging technology governance challenges.