Abstract:Retailers' low-carbon marketing helps expand the low-carbon product market and incentivize manufacturers to produce low-carbon products. However, currently, government carbon subsidies mostly target manufacturers, lacking comparative analysis of different subsidy strategies and studies on subsidies for the supply chain of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, considering carbon quotas and trading, four subsidy game models are constructed: no government subsidy, subsidy to manufacturers, subsidy to retailers, and separate subsidies to manufacturers and retailers. Through numerical simulation analysis, the differences in low-carbon effort decisions of upstream and downstream enterprises in the low-carbon supply chain, consumer demand for low-carbon products, and social welfare under different subsidy models are explored, providing reference for the government to formulate subsidy strategies. The study found that government carbon subsidies can effectively incentivize manufacturers to reduce carbon emissions and retailers to carry out low-carbon marketing, thereby expanding the low-carbon product market. The subsidy to manufacturers strategy has the highest emission reduction rate. The separate subsidy strategy can obtain the optimal social welfare, but when there is a subsidy limit, when the subsidy intensity is low, adopting the subsidy to retailers strategy can achieve higher social welfare under the same subsidy limit. Regardless of whether the government adopts a subsidy strategy, consumer low-carbon preferences and subsidy rates have a positive incentive effect on emission reduction rates, low-carbon marketing effort level, and low-carbon product demand, while carbon prices have a negative relationship with low-carbon marketing effort level and product demand. This provides insight that the government should increase subsidies for small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises to reduce emissions, focus on cultivating consumer awareness of environmental protection and low-carbon, and reasonably regulate carbon prices to incentivize corporate low-carbon transformation.