“双积分”政策对汽车制造企业竞争力的影响效应研究

Research on the Impact of the Dual-credit Policy on the Competitiveness of Automobile Manufacturing Enterprises

摘要:

我国制定的《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理办法》（以下简称“双积分政策”）实施4年来，推动汽车产业节能减排、绿色发展的效果初步显现，汽车企业正在承受减产传统燃油汽车、增产新能源汽车的转型压力，政策影响下企业竞争力变化的长期性问题值得关注。以我国新能源汽车整车上市公司为研究对象，分为乘用车企实验组和商用车企对照组，应用双重差分模型分析双积分政策对企业竞争力的影响效应，并基于企业产权性质和生命周期维度检验政策效果的异质性。结果显示：双积分政策通过促进企业新业务转型，显著降低了资产贡献率表征的企业竞争力；国有车企竞争力短期内下降明显，民营车企借助发展新能源汽车的先发优势，竞争力受政策的影响不显著；衰退期车企竞争力下降显著，成长期和成熟期企业未受到显著影响；企业增加研发投入规模对政策影响未产生调节作用，但扩大新业务规模有助于削弱政策对企业竞争力的负向影响。根据研究结论，建议双积分失衡的车企结合市场需求提升新能源汽车产量，缓解技术上的政策合规压力，扭转积分失衡带来的经营风险，并适度加大燃油汽车节能技术的研发投入，充分利用修订政策在低油耗车型上给予的积分核算优惠。政府应进一步完善新能源汽车的配套基础设施，适当加大面向新能源汽车消费终端的刺激政策，并考虑为企业配套差异化的研发补贴、研发项目资助等鼓励措施。

Abstract:

Over the past four years, the measures for the parallel administration of the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credits of passenger vehicle enterprises in China (hereinafter referred to as the “dual credit policy”) have been implemented, and the initial effect of promoting energy conservation, emission reduction, and green development of the automotive industry has been evident. Automobile manufacturing enterprises are under the transformation pressure of reducing the production of traditional fuel vehicles and increasing the production of new energy vehicles. The long-term issue of enterprise competitiveness under the influence of the policy is worthy of attention. Taking the listed enterprises of new energy vehicles as the research object, they were divided into an experimental group for passenger vehicle companies and a control group for commercial vehicle companies. The difference-in-difference model is applied to analyze the effect of the duel-credit policy on enterprise competitiveness, and the heterogeneity of policy effectiveness is tested based on the nature of enterprise property right and life cycle. The results show that the duel-credit policy significantly reduces the enterprise competitiveness represented by the asset contribution ratio by promoting the transformation of new business. The competitiveness of state-owned automobile manufacturing enterprises has declined significantly in the short term, and private enterprises have taken advantage of the first-mover advantage in developing new energy vehicles, and their competitiveness is not significantly affected by policies. The competitiveness of enterprises in the recession period drops significantly, while the enterprises in the growth period and mature period are not significantly affected. It is also found that increasing the scale of R&D investment has no moderating effect on the impact of policies, but expanding the scale of new business helps to weaken the negative impact of policies on enterprise competitiveness. It is recommended that automobile manufacturing enterprises with dual-credit imbalances increase the production of new energy vehicles in light of market demand, alleviate technical policy compliance pressures, reverse the operating risks caused by the imbalance of credits, and moderately increase investment in the research and development of energy-saving technology for fuel vehicles, and make full use of the credits accounting discounts given by the revised policy on low-fuel consumption vehicles. The government should further improve the supporting infrastructure of new energy vehicles, appropriately increase incentives for new energy vehicle consumption terminals, and consider supporting differentiated R&D subsidies, project funding, and other incentive measures for enterprises.