科技创新项目的组合选择是目前许多新型研发机构生存与可持续发展的重要决策问题。从马科维茨（Markowitz）的现代化投资理论视角，构建Markowitz均值方差理论模型，并运用非支配排序遗传算法模拟检验分散化策略在新型研发机构风险投资中的适用性与适度性，及其对机构风险防范和投资绩效的影响。结果发现，相比集中投资，分散化的投资组合策略可以有效降低新型研发机构单一项目带来的非系统性风险，而且随着投资组合规模的扩大与增加，新型研发机构可以更加有效地整合内外部创新资源，形成被投企业层面的范围性技术生态圈，充分发挥技术之间的协同效应；进一步的数值模拟分析发现，新型研发机构风险投资存在理论上的适度组合规模，过度、盲目的分散化投资组合只会降低边际效用，导致机构投资数目增长但投资质量下降、风险敞口上升的现象，无法使其风险资本达到帕累托最优配置状态。基于此，提出新型研发机构应坚持采用投资数量与投资质量并重的分散化投资策略，同时不断提升自身的增值服务能力。

TThe combination choice of scientific and technological innovation projects is an important decision-making problem for the survival and sustainable development of many new research and development institutions（new R&D institutions）. From the perspective of Markowitz's modern investment theory, this paper constructs Markowitz's mean-variance theory model, and uses non-dominated sequencing genetic algorithm to simulate and test the applicability and appropriateness of decentralization strategy in the venture capital of new R&D institutions, and its influence on institutional risk prevention and investment performance. The results show that, compared with the centralized investment, the diversified investment portfolio strategy can effectively reduce the non-systematic risks brought by the single project of the new R&D institutions. Moreover, with the expansion and increase of the investment portfolio, the new R&D institutions can integrate the internal and external innovation resources more effectively, form the scope of technology ecosystem at the level of the invested enterprises, and give full play to the synergistic effect between technologies. Further numerical simulation analysis shows that there is a theoretical moderate portfolio size for the venture capital of new R&D institutions. Excessive and blind diversification of the portfolio will only reduce the marginal utility, resulting in the increase of the number of institutional investments but the decline of investment quality and the increase of risk exposure, which cannot make the venture capital reach the Pareto optimal allocation state. Based on this, it is proposed that new R&D institutions should adhere to the diversified investment strategy of investment quantity and investment quality, and constantly improve their own value-added service ability.

F830.592；C939

广东省科学院打造综合产业技术创新中心行动专项项目“广东省高质量发展理论方法与路径创新”（2023GDASZH-2023010101）