人工智能影响经济的效应与机制研究:一个文献综述视角

The Effect and Mechanism of Artificial Intelligence Affecting Economy:A Literature Review Perspective

摘要:

人工智能的蓬勃发展对社会经济产生了深刻影响。本文就人工智能对经济增长的影响进行了较为全面的梳理分析。研究发现,在理论研究上,基于新古典增长模型和任务模型从宏观角度出发,认为人工智能在适当的条件下可以促进经济增长,但在OLG模型从微观层面出发,认为人工智能会对经济长期增长带来负面效应。在实证研究上,变量衡量指标的不一致和生产率测算指标的不同是导致结论出现分歧的重要原因。从不同行业来看,人工智能对重复性较高、生产成本攀升、资本规模较大的制造业促进作用更明显,就服务业而言,人工智能对生产性服务业的促进作用比生活性服务业更显著,但制造业和服务业间的比较研究还有待进一步深化。从不同区域来看,理论研究认为人工智能导致了发达国家和发展中国家间的差距不断扩大,但实证研究表明人工智能对发达国家的经济增长贡献微乎其微。在我国,现有研究普遍认为人工智能对东部地区的促进效果更明显,而对其他地区的影响果还存在争议。在作用机制上,人工智能主要通过生产要素优化、推动产业发展和改善经济环境所组成的三条路径来促进经济增长。

Abstract:

The vigorous development of artificial intelligence has had a profound impact on society and economy. It is found that, in theoretical research, based on the neoclassical growth model and task model, from a macro perspective, artificial intelligence can promote economic growth under appropriate conditions, but in the OLG model, from a micro perspective, artificial intelligence will bring negative effects to long-term economic growth. In empirical research, the differences of variable measurement indicators and productivity measurement indicators are the important reasons for the divergence of conclusions. From the perspective of different industries, artificial intelligence plays a more significant role in promoting manufacturing industries with high repeatability, rising production costs and large capital scale. As far as service industries are concerned, artificial intelligence plays a more significant role in promoting productive services than life services. Besides, the further comparative research between them is needed. From different regions, theoretical research holds that artificial intelligence has led to the widening gap between developed countries and developing countries.However, empirical research shows that artificial intelligence contributes little to the economic growth of developed countries. In China, the existing research generally believes that artificial intelligence has a more obvious promoting effect on the eastern region, while the effect on other regions is still controversial. In terms of mechanism, artificial intelligence mainly promotes economic growth through three paths: optimizing production factors, promoting industrial development and improving economic environment.