数字贸易发展与区域创新耦合协调性的时空格局与收敛性研究

Research on the Space-time Pattern and Convergence of the Coupling Coordination between Digital Trade Development and Regional Innovation

摘要:

摘 要：本文描述了数字技术赋能传统贸易形成数字贸易这一新业态及其与区域创新的天然的联系，并基于2010-2020年31个省（区、市）面板数据，采用熵权TOPSIS与灰色关联度评价法、探索性因子分析法分别测度数字贸易发展与区域创新综合指数，运用耦合协调模型、Kernel密度估计方法分析数字贸易发展与区域创新耦合协调度的时空演进与分布动态，最后采用变异系数和空间杜宾模型检验其σ收敛与β收敛特征，关注它们之间的耦合协调性，探讨其良性互动。研究发现：全国数字贸易发展与区域创新耦合协调度呈逐年上升趋势，其中，东部与中部地区处于良好协调阶段，西部与东北部地区处于中度协调阶段；数字贸易发展与区域创新耦合协调度绝对差异呈先扩大后缩小态势，存在微弱的两极分化现象。收敛性分析得出，仅中部地区不存在σ收敛，全国及四大地区均存在绝对β收敛与条件β收敛，且后者的收敛速度更快。

Abstract:

This paper describes how digital technology enables traditional trade to form digital trade- a new business form, and its natural relationship with regional innovation. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2010 to 2020, this paper measures the comprehensive index of digital trade development and regional innovation respectively by using entropy weight TOPSIS and grey correlation degree evaluation method and exploratory factor analysis method. The coupling coordination model and Kernel density estimation method were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution and distribution dynamics of the coupling coordination degree between digital trade development and regional innovation. Finally, the coefficient of variation and spatial Durbin model were used to test the characteristics of σ convergence and β convergence, and the coupling coordination between them was paid attention to, and the benign interaction was discussed. The results show that the coupling coordination degree of national digital trade development and regional innovation is increasing year by year. The eastern and central regions are in a good coordination stage, and the western and northeastern regions are in a moderate coordination stage. The absolute difference of the coupling coordination degree between digital trade development and regional innovation shows a trend of first enlarging and then decreasing, with a weak polarization phenomenon. The convergence analysis shows that there is no σ convergence in the central region, but there is absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in the whole country and the four major regions, and the latter convergence is faster.