基于ABM建模的农业创新技术扩散仿真研究

Simulation Research on Agricultural Innovation Technology Diffusion Based on ABM Modeling

摘要:

借助基于主体建模方法（agent-based-modeling，ABM）建立农户决策的演化博弈模型，以社会网络为技术扩散载体并假设社会网络中的农户全部采纳传统技术，设计4组控制变量实验仿真研究个体学习、社会效应和两者耦合作用对农业创新技术扩散的影响，并进一步通过改变参数探究农户平均交流人数、创新技术理论收益和两者耦合作用的影响，研究发现：仅存在个体学习时农业创新技术扩散效率大幅度增长，仅存在社会效应时扩散效率有所下降，同时存在个体学习和社会效应产生的耦合作用并非二者净作用的简单相加，而是产生了部分促进作用；农户平均交流人数的增长产生了阻碍作用，且创新技术理论收益的增长可以消除不同农户平均交流人数的差异；创新技术理论收益的增长产生了促进作用，促进效果呈非线性特征，且具有产生影响的起飞点。最后根据研究结论提出相应的政策建议。

Abstract:

With the help of agent-based modeling (ABM), an evolutionary game model of farmers' decision-making is established. With the social network as the carrier of technology diffusion and assuming that all farmers in the social network adopt traditional technologies, four groups of control variable experiments are designed to simulate the impact of individual learning and social effects on agricultural innovation technology diffusion, Furthermore, by changing the parameters to explore the impact of the average number of farmers communicating and the theoretical benefits of innovation income, the study found that the diffusion efficiency of agricultural innovation technology increased significantly when there was only individual learning, and the diffusion efficiency decreased when there was only social effect. At the same time, the coupling effect of individual learning and social effect was not a simple addition of the net effects of the two, but a partial promotion effect; The growth of the average number of farmers communicating has a restraining effect, and the growth of the theoretical benefits of innovative technology can eliminate the difference in the average number of farmers communicating; The growth of the theoretical income of innovative technology has a promoting effect, which is nonlinear and has a take-off point of influence. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, put forward some policy recommendations.