基于信息熵的重大工程技术创新不确定性测度与应用

Information Entropy-Based Uncertainty Measurement Method of Technology Innovation in Mega-Project

摘要:

在识别重大工程技术创新不确定性来源基础上，基于理想功能建立不确定性评价指标，提出基于信息熵的不确定性测度方法。应用该方法对隧道施工机械化配套技术的不确定性进行测度，研究表明：该方法能够客观地反应技术创新在不同维度上的不确定程度；在此基础上，通过相关性分析与因果分析相结合的方法，寻找不确定技术指标背后的共同条件信息，以此为基础不断引入分类指标进行测算，能够有效揭示技术创新项目不确定性的主要影响因素。

Abstract:

By quantitative measurement of uncertainty level of technology innovation in mega-project, influential factors can be recognized to provide guidance for innovation management. Uncertainty evaluation indexes were established from the perspective of ideal function based on the identification of resource of uncertainty in technology innovation of mega-project,. On these basic, the procedure of uncertainty measurement was put forward. According to the process data of technology innovation, this method was applied to measure the uncertainty in technical innovation of tunnel construction mechanization. The research shows that the information entropy calculated by the proposed approach meets the uncertain character of the innovation project in many aspects. The method of combining Correlation analysis and causal analysis is adopt to explore the common condition information, based on which the new classification indexes are introduced for the calculation of uncertainty. This proposed approach can be used to reveal the main influencing factors of the uncertainty of the measured innovation project.