地区科普水平评价及影响因素—基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Regional Science Popularization Level Evaluation and Its Influencing Factors: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要:

我国科普水平薄弱的现状已是学术界的共识，当前对该问题的解决具有时代紧迫性。本文探究各地区科普水平现状及影响因素具有很强的现实必要性。由此，基于熵权法-TOPSIS-灰色关联法，对各地区科普水平进行了评价，并在此基础上使用Catboot模型对地区科普水平的影响因素进行了探究。研究发现：1.东部省份科普水平整体相对较高，北京科普水平远远领先于其他地区，其它各地区之间科普水平存在一定的差异，但是此差异并不是很大，除北京外各地区科普水平提升空间还比较大；东北地区中，黑龙江的整体科普水平最低；中部省份基本保持一条水平线，差距不大；西部地区中西南科普水平整体高于西北，其中西藏科普水平最低。2.地区经济发展水平、高等教育发展水平、人口聚集水平、网络普及水平、产业结构优化水平、对外开放水平是地区科学普及关键性影响因素，同时也验证了地区科普水平是在社会发展、经济发展、城市发展、教育发展影响交织下进行的。

Abstract:

The current situation of weak science popularization in China has been recognized by the academic community, and the current solution to this problem is of urgency of the times. This paper has a strong practical necessity to explore the current situation and influencing factors of science popularization in various regions. Therefore, based on the entropy weight method-TOPSIS-gray correlation method, the level of science popularization in each region is evaluated, and the influencing factors of regional science popularization level are explored by using Catboot model. The study finds that: 1. The overall level of science popularization in the eastern provinces is relatively high, the level of science popularization in Beijing is far ahead of other regions, and there are certain differences in the level of science popularization between other regions, but this difference is not very large, except for Beijing, the space for improvement of the level of science popularization in various regions is still relatively large; in the northeast region, the overall level of science popularization in Heilongjiang is the lowest; the central provinces basically maintain a horizontal line, the gap is not large; the level of science popularization in the central and southwest regions in the western region is higher than that in the northwest, of which the level of science popularization in Tibet is the lowest. 2. The level of regional economic development, higher education development, population agglomeration, network popularization, industrial structure optimization and opening up are the key influencing factors of regional science popularization, and it also verifies that the regional science popularization level is intertwined under the influence of social development, economic development, urban development and educational development.