数字经济发展对农业碳排放的影响及时空效应

The impact of digital economy development on agricultural carbon emissions and its time-space effect

摘要:

为探讨数字经济发展对农业低碳转型和实现“双碳”目标的影响，加速实现我国农业绿色低碳发展,系统分析了数字经济发展对农业碳排放强度的影响机制和时空效应，并利用2010-2020年31个省份面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现：数字经济发展对农业碳排放强度有显著抑制作用，引入工具变量等稳健性检验结论依然成立，且通过提升农业社会化服务水平这一路径会间接影响数字经济发展对农业碳排放强度抑制作用。数字经济发展对农业碳排放强度影响确实存在滞后效应，对未来第二期农业碳排放强度抑制作用最强；同时数字经济发展具有显著空间溢出效应，即本地区数字经济发展对其他省份农业碳排放强度也存在显著抑制作用。数字经济发展降低农业碳排放强度的作用由经济发展落后地区向经济发达地区增强，呈现明显的空间异质性的特征。为此，提出要提升数字农业基础设施建设，深挖数字经济碳减排效能、进一步加强区域之间技术合作与经验交流、采取因地制宜的数字经济发展战略等相关建议。

Abstract:

In order to explore the impact of digital economy development on the low carbon transformation of agriculture and the realization of the “double carbon” goal, accelerate the realization of green low carbon development of agriculture in China. This paper systematically analyzes the impact mechanism and time-space effect of digital economy development on agricultural carbon emission intensity, and uses panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020 for empirical testing. The research found that the development of digital economy has a significant inhibition effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity, and the introduction of instrumental variables and other robustness test conclusions are still valid, and the path of improving the level of agricultural socialized services will indirectly affect the inhibition effect of digital economy development on agricultural carbon emission intensity. The development of digital economy does have a lag effect on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions, and has the strongest inhibitory effect on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in the second period of the future; At the same time, the development of digital economy has a significant spatial spillover effect, that is, the development of digital economy in this region also has a significant inhibition effect on the agricultural carbon emission intensity of other provinces. The role of digital economy development in reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity has been enhanced from economically underdeveloped regions to economically developed regions, showing obvious spatial heterogeneity. To this end, it is proposed to improve the construction of digital agriculture infrastructure, dig deeply into the carbon emission reduction efficiency of the digital economy, further strengthen regional technical cooperation and experience exchange, and adopt the digital economy development strategy adapted to local conditions.